BioArctic AB (publ) (BIOA-B.ST) fair value

ACCE thesis

BioArctic is a Stockholm biotech whose revenue comes mainly from licensing its antibody platform, with the Alzheimer's drugs lecanemab (partnered with Eisai, marketed as Leqembi) and BAN2802 as its core assets, and royalty and milestone income from those partnerships is what it earns. The moat is the proprietary protofibril-targeting antibody technology, which gives it a rare position as a royalty holder on an approved disease-modifying Alzheimer's therapy with a gross margin of 93.2%. Revenue fell 36.9% year over year, a drop that reflects the lumpiness of milestone and licensing recognition rather than a collapse in the franchise, and the operating margin of -5.8% reflects an R&D-heavy cost base. The near-term catalysts are Leqembi's commercial uptake and the reimbursement and dosing decisions that drive royalty growth, plus data from the BAN2802 program. At a forward P/E of 103.9 (against a trailing 255.4) the market is pricing in a sharp earnings recovery, so the question for a deeper look is whether royalty ramp and milestone timing can close that gap before the valuation has to be justified by cash flows already visible in the filings.