XP Inc. Class A Common Stock (XP) fair value

ACCE thesis

XP Inc. runs a Brazilian wealth management and brokerage platform, selling investment products, advisory services and credit to retail and affluent clients through a large network of independent advisors and its own digital channels. Its structural edge is distribution: an advisor network that gives it a hard-to-replicate funnel into Brazil's rising pool of savers, which lets it cross-sell higher-margin products over time. Revenue growth of 10.6% and a 31.2% operating margin sit alongside a 22.6% ROE, a combination that is uncommon for a financial platform of this size. At a trailing P/E of 15.3 and a forward P/E of 11.9, the market is pricing in a meaningful slowdown or a discount for emerging-market and Brazil-specific risk, and that gap is what merits a deeper look. The key questions are whether margins hold as the company pushes further into credit, and how much of the multiple reflects Brazilian rate and currency exposure rather than the underlying business. At $14.8B in market capitalisation and no index membership, the name also sits outside the flows that tend to follow large benchmark constituents.