CRCL
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
Circle issues USDC, the second-largest stablecoin by market cap, and earns the vast majority of its revenue from interest on the ~$60B reserve pool backing every dollar in circulation. The business is essentially a narrow-bank masquerading as a fintech-when rates were at 5%, the model printed cash; as the Fed cuts, that spread compresses mechanically and there's no meaningful revenue offset yet. The GENIUS Act and broader U.S. stablecoin legislation moving through Congress in 2025 is the real swing factor, as federal licensing could legitimize USDC distribution at scale through banks and payment networks, potentially accelerating institutional adoption over Tether in regulated markets. But at a forward P/E of 50x on 8% gross margins with ROE negative and the core revenue stream rate-sensitive, you're paying a premium for regulatory optionality that hasn't converted into durable earnings power. This is a macro and policy trade more than a compounder-pass unless you have a strong view on both the rate path and legislative timing.
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Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
- +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
- +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios
Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. Common Stock | $25.8B | 26.3 | 18.6% | 1.36 | 0.4% | - | Compare |
| TW | Tradeweb Markets Inc. Class A Common Stock | $22.5B | 24.8 | 14.5% | 0.02 | 0.5% | - | Compare |
| NMR | Nomura Holdings Inc ADR American Depositary Shares | $29.4B | 11.8 | 11.2% | 4.77 | 3.2% | - | Compare |
| IREN | IREN Limited Ordinary Shares | $18.4B | - | -23.4% | 1.81 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
| CPU.AX | Computershare Limited | $16.9B | 27.1 | 28.0% | 0.52 | 2.0% | - | Compare |
| FUTU | Futu Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares | $15.7B | 11.2 | 30.5% | 0.42 | 2.3% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where CRCL ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
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