Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps, Analyst consensus, and Net cash floor.
ACCE opinionXilio Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock (XLO)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$8.20
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $7.57 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus, Net cash floor, and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
41
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
1 covering
1-year return
-30.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Xilio Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Xilio Therapeutics develops masked cytokine and immunotherapy candidates designed to activate immune responses inside tumours while limiting systemic toxicity, with its lead programmes built on a conditional activation platform. The investment case rests on that platform generating clinical data strong enough to attract a partner or a financing, since at a $59M market cap the equity is priced as an option on pipeline success rather than on current earnings. Reported revenue grew 131.2% and the gross margin of 83.2% reflects collaboration and licence income rather than product sales, so the top line is lumpy and should not be read as commercial traction. Operating margin of -18.7% and ROE of -55.0% show a business still burning cash against a small equity base, which makes dilution and the timing of the next readout the central questions. The score of 45/100 and absence from any index suggest the market has little conviction yet, so this is worth a deeper look only if the portfolio can tolerate a binary, cash-constrained biotech profile.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy cash burn
Free cash flow is -$5.51M against a $55M market cap, so the company is consuming roughly a tenth of its equity value each year. Operating margin is -18.7% and net margin -34.1%.
moderate
Thin revenue base
Revenue growth of +131.2% YoY looks strong, but earnings growth is 0.0% and the company still runs losses. Growth off a small base carries little weight in sizing.
moderate
Score flat for 90 days
The ACCE score has stayed at 41/100 over 90 days, with Value at 23 and Moat at 31, so the weak valuation and competitive standing have not improved.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 131.2% year over year in the June 2026 10-Q, showing the business is scaling quickly.
Analysts' mean price target of $20.00 sits 149.1% above the current $7.57 share price.
Latest quarterly earnings beat expectations, with EPS of -0.33 against -0.59 expected, a 44.1% surprise.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of -34.1% means the company still loses a large share of every dollar of revenue.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was -$6M, and the cash yield is -9.9%.
Diluted share count rose 118.7% last fiscal year, heavily diluting existing shareholders' stakes.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 12, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where XLO's valuation models land
Price
$7.57
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $21.84
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Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Net cash floor
Sales comps
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores