3 models fit Western Union Company (The) Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver62
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionWestern Union Company (The) Common Stock (WU)
Fair value (3 models)
$12.80
ACCE price target
$6.80
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $13.01 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $6.34 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
50.5% below
+101.9% to fair value
ACCE score
46
out of 100
Analysts
6% buy
18 covering
P/E
5.2x
forward 3.9x
1-year return
-22.1%
Dividend yield
15.04%
Western Union Company (The) Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Western Union (WU) moves money for consumers and small businesses through a global network of agents and digital channels, with its retail agent footprint and branded consumer money transfer business as the core franchise. The moat is distribution: its physical agent network in cash-heavy corridors is hard to replicate, and the business still throws off strong cash generation, reflected in a 44.0% ROE and a 13.0% operating margin. The problem is top-line momentum, with revenue shrinking 1.3%, which keeps the story tied to whether the digital shift and cost program can stabilize volumes. At a 5.1x trailing and 3.9x forward P/E, the market is pricing in continued decline, so the question for the desk is whether revenue stops falling before the multiple compresses further. The score of 46/100 and absence from any major index mean this is a value screen candidate that needs a deeper look at the transaction trend and capital return policy before anyone considers it further.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Shrinking revenue and earnings
Revenue fell 1.3% year on year and earnings fell 35.1%, with a 5-year revenue CAGR of -3.5%. The business is contracting, not compounding.
high
Heavy leverage
Debt to equity is 3.24. Thin equity against this debt load leaves little room for a downturn in cash generation.
high
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 21.5% of shares. A quarter of the float betting against the stock signals strong bearish conviction among informed sellers.
moderate
Score down over 90 days
The ACCE score fell 8 points, from 54 to 46, over 90 days. Momentum and quality components have weakened, with the margin score at 17.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-16 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
At a 4.1x forward P/E against a sector median of 11.7x, the shares look cheap by earnings measures, with free cash flow of $393M over the last twelve months.
Shares outstanding fell 4.0% in the last fiscal year, so each remaining share has a larger claim on the company's earnings.
The stock trades 50.5% below the model fair value of $12.80, and the three models in the consensus point to a higher value than the current price.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 1.3% year over year and has declined an average of 3.5% a year over five years, so the core business is shrinking.
A 15.2% dividend yield is far above what the business can comfortably pay, which suggests the market expects a cut.
Only 1 of 18 analysts rates the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and the latest earnings per share came in 27.9% below expectations.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where WU's valuation models land
Price
$6.34
Model fair value
$12.80
Model range
$9.52 to $18.16
Fair value $12.80
Price $6.34
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores