Financial Services · Credit Services · Nasdaq Stockholm · Sweden
kr 178.70-7.70%
Market cap kr 15.8BNext earnings 2026-10-23Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 9% above our fair value
Price
kr 178.70
Model fair valueConfidence: good
kr 163
Model range
kr 72.28 to kr 252
Fair value kr 163
Price kr 179
4 models fit Hoist Finance AB (publ) and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Gold81
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionHoist Finance AB (publ) (HOFI.ST)
Fair value (4 models)
kr 163
ACCE price target
kr 191
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 11:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST.
Price used: kr 179 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
9.5% above
-8.7% to fair value
ACCE score
85
out of 100
P/E
11.5x
forward 6.4x
1-year return
+84.1%
Dividend yield
1.68%
Hoist Finance AB (publ) in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Hoist Finance buys portfolios of non-performing consumer loans from banks and collects on them, mostly across the Nordics, Germany, Italy and Spain, and reports its results in SEK. The moat is the servicing side: a collections platform that prices distressed debt on historical recovery data, which is hard to replicate and shows up in a 49.7% operating margin and 20.8% ROE. Revenue growth of 23.1% is the number to check against recent portfolio purchase volumes and forward collections, since that is what drives the next few years of earnings. At 12.4x trailing and 16.2x forward earnings the forward multiple sits above the trailing one, so the market is not pricing in a continuation of the latest year's earnings jump, which makes the growth assumptions the first thing to test. Worth a deeper look to confirm whether recovery rates on recent vintages hold up and how much of the 23% growth is repeatable rather than one-off portfolio gains.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Leverage and debt load
Debt/Equity of 1.75 is high, and for a credit services firm funded by borrowing, a leveraged balance sheet magnifies any hit to loan recoveries or funding costs.
moderate
Earnings growth may not repeat
Earnings rose 112.2% year on year against revenue growth of 23.1%, so the jump looks driven by one-off or cyclical factors that could fade.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-20 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 23.1% year over year in the June 2026 interim report, well above its 11.4% average annual pace over five years.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached SEK 5.9B, and the stock's free cash flow yield stands at 35.2%.
At kr 178.70, the shares trade at 6.4 times forward earnings, and the analysts' mean price target of SEK 205.50 sits 6.9% above that price.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital is only 5.5%, a thin return for a business carrying debt equal to 1.75 times its equity.
Trailing earnings multiple of 12.3 times is far above the 6.4 times forward figure, so the cheap-looking forward number depends on profits rising sharply.
The share price of kr 178.70 already sits 9.5% relative to the model fair value of kr 163.20, leaving less room for error if earnings disappoint.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where HOFI.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 178.70
Model fair value
kr 163
Model range
kr 72.28 to kr 252
Fair value kr 163
Price kr 179
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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