Winnebago Industries Inc. Common Stock (WGO) fair value
Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles · NYSE · United States
$28.65+0.28%
Market cap $808MNext earnings 2026-10-21Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 52% below our fair value
Price
$28.65
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$60.03
Model range
$45.08 to $71.96
Fair value $60.03
Price $28.65
4 models fit Winnebago Industries Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze58
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionWinnebago Industries Inc. Common Stock (WGO)
Fair value (4 models)
$60.03
ACCE price target
$24.20
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $54.79 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $28.65 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
52.3% below
+109.5% to fair value
ACCE score
36
out of 100
Analysts
36% buy
14 covering
P/E
23.6x
forward 11.5x
1-year return
-27.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Winnebago Industries Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Winnebago builds motorhomes and towables under brands such as Grand Design, Newmar and Chris-Craft, and sells them through a dealer network across North America. The bet here is cyclical recovery rather than structural advantage: at a 3.3% operating margin and 13.0% gross margin, the business has little pricing power to fall back on, and its 3.1% ROE shows the balance sheet is not generating much return on equity. Revenue fell 9.9%, so the earnings base the stock trades on is still shrinking, and the market is pricing that in. The forward P/E of 11.5 against a trailing 18.1 implies analysts expect earnings to rebuild, which is the question to test. The score of 37/100 and the absence of index membership point to a name the quantitative screens do not favor, so a deeper look should focus on dealer inventory levels, RV order trends and whether margins can climb back from current depressed levels.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue and earnings declining
Revenue fell 9.9% year over year and earnings fell 18.2%, with a net margin of only 1.4% and operating margin of 3.3%, leaving little cushion if the downturn deepens.
moderate
Score down six points
The ACCE score dropped from 43 to 37 over 90 days, with Momentum at 17 and Quality at 35, pointing to weakening fundamentals.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 11.6% of shares, meaning a meaningful group of investors is betting on further weakness.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026 · figures from 2026-05-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
The share price of $23.17 sits well below the consensus fair value of $54.79, a gap of 136.5%.
Free cash flow of $90M over the last twelve months gives a free cash flow yield of 13.5% at the current price.
The diluted share count fell 4.1% last fiscal year, so each remaining share claims a bigger slice of the business.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 9.9% year over year, well below the 5-year average growth of 3.5% per year.
Net margin of 1.4% and return on invested capital of 1.2% show the business earns very little on its sales and capital.
The latest earnings per share came in 19.5% below expectations, at $0.66 against $0.82 forecast.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where WGO's valuation models land
Price
$28.65
Model fair value
$60.03
Model range
$45.08 to $71.96
Fair value $60.03
Price $28.65
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores