Financial Services · Banks - Regional · NASDAQ · United States
$29.47+0.10%
Market cap $2.2BNext earnings 2026-10-15Updated Oct 18, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 28% below our fair value
Price
$29.47
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$40.96
Model range
$29.34 to $55.71
Fair value $40.96
Price $29.47
3 models fit WaFd Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze44
Valued as a bank: Residual income, P/E comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionWaFd Inc. Common Stock (WAFD)
Fair value (3 models)
$40.96
ACCE price target
$30.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CEST; previously $33.73 since 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 19 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $31.00 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CEST.
Price used: $29.47 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Graham number, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
28.0% below
+39.0% to fair value
ACCE score
59
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
4 covering
P/E
9.2x
forward 7.3x
1-year return
+1.7%
Dividend yield
3.67%
WaFd Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
WaFd is the holding company for WaFd Bank, a Seattle-based regional lender whose core products are commercial real estate, construction and residential mortgage loans, and deposit accounts across the Pacific Northwest, Southwest and Mountain West. At a 9.3 trailing P/E against a 13.6 forward P/E, the market is pricing earnings to fall from here, which makes the forward multiple the number to challenge rather than the trailing one. Revenue growth of 5.6% sits above what most regional peers are delivering, but an 8.5% ROE means the bank is earning a thin return on its equity base, so the case rests on whether spread income and loan growth can lift returns toward a level that justifies the valuation. The open question for a deeper look is credit quality in the commercial real estate book, given how exposed regional lenders in the West have been to office and construction stress. The stock is outside every major index, a fact that may explain part of the discount but also means the name gets limited institutional coverage.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Score down sharply
ACCE score fell from 78 to 63 over 90 days, with Margin sub-score at 41 and Growth at 56. The decline is material enough to check what changed before sizing a position.
moderate
Short interest elevated
Short interest stands at 10.4% of shares. That is a meaningful bearish positioning level that can amplify moves in either direction.
moderate
Price below ACCE target
The stock trades 1.8% below the ACCE price target of $30.00, and 28.0% below the model fair value of $40.96. The gap to fair value is wide, so the market is pricing in a concern the models may not capture.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-09-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow of $208M over the last twelve months gives the stock a 9.7% free cash flow yield at today's price.
The company cut its diluted share count by 6.3% last year, so each remaining share owns a larger slice of the business.
The stock trades 28.0% below the model fair value of $40.96, which the three valuation models in the consensus all point to.
Why it could disappoint
Return on equity of 8.5% and return on invested capital of 3.8% are modest returns on the capital the bank holds.
Revenue grew only 5.6% last year, well below the 16.8% average annual growth over the past five years.
None of the four analysts covering the stock rate it Buy or Strong Buy, a sign of scepticism among the people who follow it closely.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where WAFD's valuation models land
Price
$29.47
Model fair value
$40.96
Model range
$29.34 to $55.71
Fair value $40.96
Price $29.47
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Graham number
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores