Grupo Aval preferred (PFAVAL.CL) fair value

ACCE thesis

Grupo Aval is a Colombian holding company whose preferred shares (PFAVAL) give exposure to a conglomerate of banks, pension and asset management, and insurance units across Colombia and Central America. The structural case rests on that footprint: a dominant domestic banking franchise with a diversified fee base, which has produced 18.6% revenue growth and a 42.5% operating margin, while the stock trades at 10.3x trailing earnings and 8.4x forward earnings. The return on equity of 10.0% is the figure to scrutinize, since it sits well below what the margins imply and will determine whether the discount to earnings is earned or a value trap. The forward multiple implies earnings expected to rise roughly a fifth from trailing levels, so the near-term question is whether Colombian rate and credit conditions allow that step-up to land. The score of 71/100 and absence from major indices suggest a name the market under-follows, which makes it worth a deeper look at asset quality, peso exposure and the preferred-versus-common valuation gap.