3 models fit Vistra Corp. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)
Valued as a utility: Dividend discount, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionVistra Corp. Common Stock (VST)
Fair value (3 models)
$146
ACCE price target
$150
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST; previously $154 since 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $140 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
3.7% below
+3.9% to fair value
ACCE score
37
out of 100
Analysts
95% buy
21 covering
P/E
23.7x
forward 13.3x
1-year return
-26.8%
Dividend yield
0.58%
Vistra Corp. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Vistra owns and operates a fleet of 41 GW of generation capacity across the US, with roughly 50% coal, 25% nuclear, and 25% natural gas and renewables. The company benefits from structural tailwinds in Texas, where deregulated wholesale power prices have risen sharply due to grid constraints and growing demand from data centers and industrial load. Vistra's nuclear assets are particularly valuable in this environment: they run at high capacity factors and produce zero-carbon baseload power at costs well below current market prices. The near-term catalyst is the ramp of new data center demand in Texas, which is expected to add 5-10 GW of incremental load over the next three years. The stock trades at a 15.5x forward PE despite a 43% ROE and a generation fleet that is increasingly scarce in a decarbonizing grid; the valuation compression reflects market skepticism about coal assets, but Vistra's nuclear and gas capacity should remain economically durable even as coal retires.