Market cap €939MNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Close to our fair value
Price
€48.58
Model fair valueConfidence: good
€47.33
Model range
€34.45 to €57.37
Fair value €47.33
Price €48.58
3 models fit Vossloh AG and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionVossloh AG (VOS.DE)
Fair value (3 models)
€47.33
ACCE price target
€58.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously €48.40 since 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: €48.58 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
2.6% above
-2.6% to fair value
ACCE score
48
out of 100
P/E
26.4x
forward 12.9x
1-year return
-42.1%
Dividend yield
2.25%
Vossloh AG in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Vossloh makes railway track components, including rail fastening systems, switches and crossings, and the Rail Infrastructure and Rail Vehicle Accessories segments that supply them to national rail networks. Its position rests on installed base and approval: once a fastening system or turnout is specified into a network, replacement and maintenance demand recurs for decades, which supports the 26.5% gross margin. Revenue grew 19.3%, and the forward P/E of 13.5 against a trailing 28.2 suggests earnings are expected to recover sharply from a depressed base, a gap worth testing against order intake and margin guidance. The 6.8% operating margin and 6.9% ROE show the recovery is not yet visible in returns, so the question for a deeper look is whether margin expansion follows the top-line growth. At roughly EUR 1.0 billion in market cap and no index membership, the name sits in the range where thesis work is likely to be under-covered.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing despite growth
Revenue grew 19.3% year on year, yet earnings fell 42.4%. Net margin of 3.2% and operating margin of 6.8% show the top-line growth is not reaching the bottom line.
moderate
Leveraged balance sheet
Debt to equity of 1.37 is elevated for an industrial. Free cash flow of $75M should be weighed against that debt load before sizing a position.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 19.3% year over year, well above its own 9.1% average annual pace over five years.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached EUR 75M, a 7.6% yield at the current share price.
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 72.71 sits 40.9% above the share price, and the forward P/E of 17.2x is well below the trailing 27.7x.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of 3.2% and return on invested capital of 3.9% leave little profit for each euro of sales or capital.
Debt to equity of 1.37 means borrowing exceeds shareholder equity, which limits room to absorb a downturn.
The diluted share count rose 8.7% last fiscal year, so each shareholder's slice of earnings and cash flow shrank.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where VOS.DE's valuation models land
Price
€48.58
Model fair value
€47.33
Model range
€34.45 to €57.37
Fair value €47.33
Price €48.58
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
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