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TRN
ACCE-researched

Trinity Industries Inc. Common Stock (TRN) fair value

Industrials · Railroads · NYSE · United States
$25.54-1.08%
Market cap $2.1BNext earnings 2026-10-29Updated Oct 20, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 12% below our fair value
Price
$25.54
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$29.14
Model range
$28.02 to $30.26
Fair value $29.14
Price $25.54
2 models fit Trinity Industries Inc. Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze43
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionTrinity Industries Inc. Common Stock (TRN)
Fair value (2 models)
$29.14
ACCE price target
$29.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $29.58 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $25.54 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
12.4% below
+14.1% to fair value
ACCE score
51
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
2 covering
P/E
5.9x
forward 20.1x
1-year return
-9.1%
Dividend yield
4.88%

Trinity Industries Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Trinity Industries leases and manages railcars and manufactures new ones for freight railroads and shippers. A large leased fleet generates recurring rental income, and building railcars adds exposure to the equipment cycle. Lease rates and new railcar orders drive results. Revenue fell 4.2%, but ROE is 30.2% and the operating margin 12.1%, at 6.1x trailing earnings against a forward multiple of 20.1x.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Negative free cash flow
    FCF is -$335M despite positive earnings. Capital intensity or working capital swing requires scrutiny.
  • high
    Extreme leverage
    Debt/Equity of 4.68 is very high. Debt service risk material if revenue or margins deteriorate.
  • high
    ACCE score collapse
    Score fell 10 points in 90 days (61 to 51). Momentum component (M:25) is weak; quality also soft at 63.
  • moderate
    Revenue decline with earnings spike
    Revenue down 4.2% YoY but earnings up 619%. Likely one-time gain or accounting benefit; sustainability unclear.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Trinity trades at 6.0x trailing P/E, half the sector median forward P/E of 24.1x, suggesting deep undervaluation.
  • Net margin of 16.6% and ROE of 30.2% show the core business generates strong profits on shareholder capital.
Why it could disappoint
  • Free cash flow of negative $335M and negative 16.5% FCF yield mean the business burns cash and cannot fund dividends organically.
  • Debt to equity of 4.68 combined with negative FCF creates refinancing risk if lease rates or used railcar values decline.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where TRN's valuation models land
Price
$25.54
Model fair value
$29.14
Model range
$28.02 to $30.26
Fair value $29.14
Price $25.54
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish0% buy · 2 covering analysts
● Strong buy 0● Buy 0● Hold 2● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.3%
1 month
-8.9%
3 months
-31.7%
6 months
-19.6%
YTD
-3.4%
1 year
-9.1%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$24.87
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTFair value$29.14$29.58$24.87
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$29.58$29.99$26.13
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$29.99$33.75$25.52
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$33.75$34.23$26.71
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$29.00first publication$27.91
3 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$34.23$34.92$27.86
26 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$34.92$32.74$29.51
24 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$32.74$35.04$29.62
22 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$35.04$44.40$29.56

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth43Value74Quality63Momentum25Total51
Valuation
Trailing P/E
5.9x
Forward P/E
20.1x
PEG
0.69
P/B
1.94x
EV / Revenue
3.6x
Book value/sh
$14.34
Enterprise value
$7.3B
Profitability
ROE
30.2%
FCF yield
-21.16%
ROIC
3.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
5.05
Dividend yield
4.88%
Beta
1.35

Price

-9.7% · 1Y

Ask anything about TRN

Answered from Trinity Industries Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 5.9x5.9xhigh 25.0x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 6%30%high 30%
Div yieldbetter than 100% of peers
low 2.0%4.9%high 4.9%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
TRN Trinity Industries Inc. Common Stock$25.54$2912% below5.9x30.2%6351
JFN.SW Jungfraubahn Holding AGCHF 237.50CHF 19919% above19.9x9.4%8549
FGP.L FirstGroup plc£2.14£321% below10.7x16.7%4659
CAF.MC Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles€76.70€6518% above15.1x18.0%6183
CONCOR.NS Container Corporation of India Limited₹424.60--25.0x-7544
GBX Greenbrier Companies Inc. (The) Common Stock$38.78$7549% below11.5x6.3%4336
9001.T Tobu Railway Co., Ltd.¥2911.50--10.3x9.4%5461

Sector report card

Where TRN ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 8, 2026
    Trinity Industries, Inc. Announces Date for Earnings Release
  • Business Wire•Oct 5, 2026
    Trinity Industries Statement on Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Petition Filed Against Railway Tank Car Imports from Mexico
  • Business Wire•Sep 10, 2026
    Trinity Industries, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend
3 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 1
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 1
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 1
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR