Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
40.2% below
+67.3% to fair value
ACCE score
51
out of 100
Analysts
60% buy
5 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 35.6x
1-year return
+35.0%
Dividend yield
3.33%
Vodafone Group Plc American Depositary Shares in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Vodafone runs mobile and fixed-line networks across Europe and Africa, selling postpaid and prepaid mobile plans, broadband, and enterprise connectivity under brands including Vodafone, Vodacom and Safaricom's parent stake. At a 9.2x forward P/E, 7.3% revenue growth and a 7.8% operating margin, the stock trades at a discount to most telecom peers, but the 0.1% ROE and absence of trailing earnings show how little of that growth reaches shareholders today. The thesis rests on whether continued network investment and portfolio pruning convert top-line growth into durable margin expansion, which the current 31.5% gross margin and 49/100 score do not yet demonstrate. It merits a deeper look mainly for the valuation gap and the Africa exposure, while the lack of index membership and weak returns on equity are the reasons to stay skeptical until earnings quality improves.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse and negative net margin
Earnings down 15.4% YoY while revenue grew 7.3%. Net margin is -1.0%, indicating the company is unprofitable on a bottom-line basis despite operational activity.
high
ACCE score deterioration
Score fell 10 points in 90 days (59 to 49). Growth component particularly weak at 28/100, signaling fundamental momentum concerns.
moderate
Elevated leverage with negative returns
Debt/Equity of 1.04 combined with ROE of +0.1% means the company is carrying substantial debt while generating minimal shareholder returns.
moderate
Long-term revenue stagnation
5-year revenue CAGR is -1.4%, indicating structural decline despite recent YoY growth. Recent quarters may not reflect underlying trajectory.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 16, 2026 · figures from 2026-09-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Recent revenue growth of 7.3% year over year signals a turnaround after a 5-year average decline of 1.4% annually.
Free cash flow yield of 26.7% is exceptionally high, suggesting the stock trades at a steep discount to intrinsic value.
Consensus fair value of 26.75 dollars implies 71.9% upside, with all 4 valuation models in agreement on the target.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of negative 1.0% and ROE of 0.1% mean the company destroys shareholder value and earnings are unreliable.
Debt to equity of 1.04 is elevated and limits financial flexibility if free cash flow declines or capital needs rise.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 10, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where VOD's valuation models land
Price
$15.74
Model fair value
$26.33
Model range
$8.66 to $50.11
Fair value $26.33
Price $15.74
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores