3 models fit Vallourec S.A. and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionVallourec S.A. (VK.PA)
Fair value (3 models)
€16.84
ACCE price target
€20.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: €18.11 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
7.5% above
-7.0% to fair value
ACCE score
61
out of 100
P/E
13.3x
forward 9.3x
1-year return
+14.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Vallourec S.A. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Vallourec makes seamless steel tubes for oil and gas wells and for high-pressure industrial uses, including the premium connections that sit on the end of drill pipe and casing, a niche where its engineering and qualification record is hard for smaller rivals to copy. The advantage is the qualification process itself: operators approve a tube for sour or deep-well service only after long testing, so incumbents keep repeat orders. Growth is modest on the numbers we have, with revenue up 2.6% and a 14.2% operating margin, so the case rests on the tubes holding their pricing through the cycle rather than on volume expansion. It is worth a deeper look because the stock trades at 13.0x trailing and 9.1x forward earnings with a 15.8% ROE, a sizeable gap between trailing and forward multiples that implies the market expects earnings to rise, and the company's 29.7% gross margin suggests it is capturing value in the premium segment rather than competing on commodity pricing. The open question for the next step is whether that forward earnings path is driven by sustained demand from oil and gas capex or by a one-off normalisation, and that is what the deeper work needs to settle.
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Thin revenue growth
Revenue grew only 2.6% year on year against a 5-year CAGR of 3.3%, so top-line momentum is slowing, while earnings jumped 30.2%. Much of that earnings gain may not repeat.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Trailing free cash flow of EUR 384M gives a free cash flow yield of 7.8%, a sizeable cash return at today's price.
Return on equity of 15.8% and a debt to equity ratio of 0.40 show a profitable business that does not lean heavily on borrowing.
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 26.14 sits 42.5% above the share price, suggesting the market is pricing in a steep discount.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue grew only 2.6% over the past year, well below its 3.3% average annual pace across five years.
The latest quarter missed expectations, with earnings per share of 0.21 against 0.25 expected, a 16.0% shortfall.
Return on invested capital of 9.0% is modest, and the diluted share count rose 2.5%, diluting existing holders.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 20, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where VK.PA's valuation models land
Price
€18.11
Model fair value
€16.84
Model range
€11.87 to €21.25
Fair value €16.84
Price €18.11
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
+Score history: how each score moved over time
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PRO
In one line
Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.