Acerinox (ACX.MC) fair value

ACCE thesis

Acerinox makes stainless steel flat products, mainly hot and cold rolled coil and sheet, out of its own melt shops in Spain, the US and South Africa, and it sells into the European and North American industrial supply chain. The market cap of about EUR 4.2 billion makes it a small, cyclical name whose earnings swing with nickel and chrome input costs and with the Chinese stainless overcapacity that has pressed prices for years. The case rests on the gap between a trailing P/E of 52.9, which reflects depressed or one-off earnings, and a forward P/E of 10.8, which implies the market expects a sharp recovery in profit. Our data does not include revenue growth, margins or ROE, so we cannot yet confirm how much of that recovery is already visible in the numbers. The name is worth a deeper look mainly to test whether normalised stainless spreads and US tariff protection support the forward earnings figure.