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Valued as a growth company: EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionVital Farms Inc. Common Stock (VITL)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$9.30
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $9.14 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
31
out of 100
Analysts
40% buy
10 covering
1-year return
-76.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Vital Farms Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Vital Farms sells pasture-raised shell eggs and egg products under its own brand and through private label, sourcing from a network of contracted family farms in the US. The moat is the brand and the pasture-raised claim, which has let it charge a premium that few egg producers can match, and it has built a direct relationship with a growing base of retail customers. The problem is that the premium has not held up: revenue fell 10.1% over the latest period, and operating margin is -24.2% against a gross margin of 28.1%, so costs below the gross line are swamping what the product earns. Forward P/E of 208x on a company with negative operating margin prices in a recovery that the current numbers do not yet show. At a $367M market cap with no index membership, this is a name to examine only if you have a specific view on egg pricing normalising and pasture-raised volume recovering; the score of 31/100 reflects that the bar is high.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
severe
Cash burn and operating losses
Free cash flow is -$48.2M against a $350M market cap, with an operating margin of -24.2%. Revenue fell 10.1% year over year, so the business is shrinking while losing cash.
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 29.1% of float. That level signals strong bearish conviction among traders and can produce sharp moves in either direction.
high
Score collapse over 90 days
The ACCE score fell 25 points, from 56 to 31, over 90 days. Margin (17) and value (23) are the weakest components, and quality sits at 42.
moderate
Earnings growth diverges from revenue
Earnings rose 51.3% year over year while revenue fell 10.1%, and net margin is effectively zero at +0.0%. Earnings growth from a small base is a weak signal, so check what drove it.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Five-year average revenue growth of 28.8% per year shows the business has compounded fast over a long stretch.
Return on invested capital of 13.4% suggests the company earns a solid return on the money put into its operations.
The average analyst mean price target of $12.67 sits 54.3% above the current share price, implying room for a rebound.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 10.1% year over year, reversing the strong multi-year growth that supported the stock.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$48M, so the business is consuming cash rather than generating it.
A forward P/E of 208.3x means investors are paying a very high price for each dollar of expected earnings.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where VITL's valuation models land
Price
$9.14
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$25.20
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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