Industrials · Building Products & Equipment · XETRA · Germany
€11.45-2.97%
Market cap €307MNext earnings 2025-07-31Updated Oct 22, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 36% above our fair value
Price
€11.45
Model fair valueConfidence: good
€8.40
Model range
€4.61 to €12.96
Fair value €8.40
Price €11.45
3 models fit Villeroy & Boch AG and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionVilleroy & Boch AG (VIB3.DE)
Fair value (3 models)
€8.40
ACCE price target
€12.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
Price used: €11.45 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
36.3% above
-26.6% to fair value
ACCE score
38
out of 100
1-year return
-29.3%
Dividend yield
7.14%
Villeroy & Boch AG in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Villeroy & Boch makes ceramic bathroom fixtures (toilets, basins, bathtubs and shower trays) and tableware, selling into the European renovation and new-build market under its long-established brand. Its moat is brand and distribution rather than technology: a 37.7% gross margin and a 7.0% operating margin reflect pricing power in premium sanitary ware, though revenue fell 11.1% and return on equity is slightly negative at -1.7%, so the franchise is not currently converting into profit growth. The near-term swing factor is European construction and renovation activity, which has been weak through the destocking cycle; a recovery in volumes would show up quickly in operating leverage given the cost base. At a 14.8x forward P/E and a 316M EUR market cap, the stock is priced for a recovery that has not yet appeared in the reported numbers. It is worth a deeper look to test whether margins hold through the revenue decline and whether the order book or channel inventory data points to a turn.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue shrinking sharply
Revenue fell 11.1% year on year while net margin is still negative at -0.4%, so the earnings jump of 586.0% rests on a small base rather than a recovery in the business.
moderate
Leveraged balance sheet
Debt to equity of 1.25 and an ROE of -1.7% leave little cushion if revenue keeps falling, even with FCF of $77M.
moderate
Price well above model value
The stock trades 36.3% above the model fair value of €8.40, so the current price already assumes a turnaround the models do not yet support.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
The company generated EUR 77M of free cash flow over the last twelve months, real cash the business is producing.
Revenue grew 12.6% a year on average over five years, showing a long record of expansion before the recent slowdown.
The shares yield 7.1%, and the price implies cash flow growth of 8.2% a year forever, a demanding but not impossible bar.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 11.1% year over year, and the business is currently shrinking rather than growing.
The company is barely profitable, with a net margin of -0.4% and return on equity of -1.7%.
The shares trade 36.3% above the model fair value of €8.40, and the consensus fair value sits 29.4% below the price.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where VIB3.DE's valuation models land
Price
€11.45
Model fair value
€8.40
Model range
€4.61 to €12.96
Fair value €8.40
Price €11.45
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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