4 models fit Valiant Holding AG and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)
Valued as a bank: Residual income, P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionValiant Holding AG (VATN.SW)
Fair value (4 models)
CHF 110
ACCE price target
CHF 149
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: CHF 144 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, Graham number, Dividend discount, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
31.2% above
-23.8% to fair value
ACCE score
48
out of 100
P/E
14.4x
forward 12.6x
1-year return
+11.5%
Dividend yield
4.06%
Valiant Holding AG in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Valiant Holding is a Swiss regional bank in Lucerne, taking deposits and writing mortgages and corporate loans across central Switzerland, with a wealth management and private banking arm sitting alongside. Its core moat is local: a deep retail deposit franchise and a mortgage book concentrated in a region where households and SMEs rarely switch lenders, which supports the 37.5% operating margin on 1.4% revenue growth. The growth story is slow by design, so the case rests on capital returns and margin durability rather than top-line acceleration, and the company does not appear to offer a near-term catalyst in the data provided. What makes it worth a look now is the valuation against quality: at 14.8x trailing and 12.9x forward earnings, the shares trade at a discount to where a 5.8% ROE bank with this margin profile would usually sit, but the ROE is modest and the revenue line is nearly flat, so the discount may be earned. This name is worth a deeper look mainly to test whether Swiss mortgage concentration and the rate environment are priced correctly.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Leverage far above norm
Debt/Equity of 4.38 with FCF of $52M. Leverage this high on a bank-style balance sheet should size the position smaller than the valuation alone suggests.
moderate
Growth decelerating sharply
Revenue grew only 1.4% YoY against a 10.9% five-year CAGR, and earnings rose just 2.5%. The growth story has slowed well below its history.
moderate
Price well above model fair value
Shares trade 31.2% above the model fair value of CHF 109.59, so the stock already prices in more than the four-model consensus supports.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-21 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Valiant's trailing P/E of 15.0x and forward P/E of 12.4x sit close to the sector median forward P/E of 12.0x.
Analysts' mean price target of CHF 162.00 implies 8.7% upside from the current share price of CHF 143.80.
A 4.0% dividend yield and a 2.2% free cash flow yield give shareholders a steady cash return while they wait.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 31.2% above the model fair value of CHF 109.59, and all four valuation models in the consensus point the same way.
Return on invested capital of 0.9% and return on equity of 5.8% show the bank earns little on the capital it uses.
Revenue grew just 1.4% over the last year against a 10.9% five-year average, and the latest EPS came in 9.9% below expectations.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where VATN.SW's valuation models land
Price
CHF 143.80
Model fair value
CHF 110
Model range
CHF 73.58 to CHF 196
Fair value CHF 110
Price CHF 144
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
P/E comparison
Residual income
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
+Score history: how each score moved over time
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PRO
In one line
Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.