Financial Services · Banks - Regional · NSE · India
₹178.90-2.16%
Market cap ₹1.37TNext earnings 2026-10-19Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 8% below our fair value
Price
₹178.90
Model fair valueConfidence: good
₹194
Model range
₹57.68 to ₹331
Fair value ₹194
Price ₹179
2 models fit Union Bank of India and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver65
Valued as a bank: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionUnion Bank of India (UNIONBANK.NS)
Fair value (2 models)
₹194
ACCE price target
₹191
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST.
Price used: ₹179 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 12:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
7.9% below
+8.5% to fair value
ACCE score
80
out of 100
P/E
6.2x
forward 6.2x
1-year return
+25.2%
Dividend yield
2.73%
Union Bank of India in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Union Bank of India is a state-owned lender whose core business is retail and agricultural lending, deposit-taking through a large branch network, and government-linked corporate banking. The franchise's edge is its scale and sovereign backing in a market where public banks still hold a large share of deposits, which keeps funding costs competitive. Revenue growth of 15.6% and a 16.3% ROE suggest the balance sheet is earning well above its book, and the recent wave of public-sector bank consolidation and asset-quality clean-up is the kind of backdrop that tends to lift reported profitability. At 6.8x trailing and 6.7x forward earnings, the stock trades at a steep discount to Indian banking peers and to its own growth rate, so the question for a PM is whether that discount reflects credit risk the headline numbers do not show. It is worth a deeper look on asset quality (gross and net NPA trends, provisioning coverage) and on how much of the earnings growth is durable rather than a function of falling provisions.
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Heavy insider ownership
Insiders hold 74.8% of the shares, leaving only 15.1% institutional and a thin free float. Liquidity and price discovery can be weaker than the 1.4T INR market cap suggests.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 15.6% year over year, well above the 5.8% per year average of the last five years.
The bank earns a 16.3% return on equity and keeps 41.5% of revenue as net profit.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 21.5%, reporting 7.57 against 6.23 expected.
Why it could disappoint
As a state-owned lender, the bank carries political and policy risk that private peers do not face.
At 6.8 times trailing earnings, the shares already price in much of the recent profit growth.
The stock trades 6.3% below the ACCE price target of ₹191.00, so the upside case is modest.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where UNIONBANK.NS's valuation models land
Price
₹178.90
Model fair value
₹194
Model range
₹57.68 to ₹331
Fair value ₹194
Price ₹179
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Analysts
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