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5838.T
ACCE-researched

Rakuten Bank, Ltd. (5838.T) fair value

Financial Services · Banks - Regional · TSE · Japan
¥5810.00-2.76%
Market cap ¥2.36TNext earnings 2026-11-11Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 5% above our fair value
Price
¥5810.00
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
¥5528
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a bank: P/E comparison.
ACCE opinionRakuten Bank, Ltd. (5838.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥6275
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥5810 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
64
out of 100
P/E
13.2x
forward 19.4x
1-year return
-29.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Rakuten Bank, Ltd. in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Rakuten Bank runs a digital-first retail bank in Japan, with deposits, mortgages, consumer loans and securities brokerage delivered mainly through its app and tied into the Rakuten Group ecosystem of e-commerce, mobile and points. Its edge is distribution: it acquires customers through Rakuten's shopping and payments base at low cost, which has let it grow revenue 27.2% while running a 51.1% operating margin and a 20.0% ROE. The main growth lever is the continued migration of Japanese savers and borrowers from incumbent megabanks to a low-cost online lender, with the securities and lending businesses adding fee income on top of deposit spread. The stock trades at 13.5 times trailing earnings but 20.0 times forward, a gap that suggests the market expects earnings to reset, so the first question for a deeper look is whether consensus forecasts reflect the scale of growth you would need to underwrite that multiple.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Heavy insider ownership
    Insiders hold 50.0% of shares outstanding, so free float is thin and the stock may move on relatively few trades. Short interest is not available.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 27.2% year over year, well above its 11.2% average annual pace over five years.
  • The bank kept 37.2% of revenue as net profit and earned a 20.0% return on equity.
  • Analysts' mean price target of JPY 6758.57 sits 13.1% above the share price.
Why it could disappoint
  • The stock trades at 20.0x forward earnings, well above its 13.5x trailing multiple, implying earnings are expected to slow.
  • The share price is ¥5810.00, which is 7.4% below the ACCE price target of ¥6275.00.
  • The company pays no dividend, and the bank's forward earnings per share sit below its trailing figure.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where 5838.T's valuation models land
Price
¥5810.00
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
¥5528
Model
Fair value
Upside
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

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  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Recent performance

1 week
-3.0%
1 month
-5.9%
3 months
+4.2%
6 months
-5.6%
YTD
-15.9%
1 year
-29.2%

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CESTACCE price target¥6275first publication¥5975

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

This security trades in JPY. Exchange-rate movements can increase or reduce the result in your own currency.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth80Value69Quality74Momentum31Total64
Valuation
Trailing P/E
13.2x
Forward P/E
19.4x
PEG
0.53
P/B
no data
EV / Revenue
no data
Book value/sh
no data
Enterprise value
no data
Profitability
ROE
20.0%
FCF yield
no data
ROIC
no data
Health and risk
Debt / equity
no data
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
no data

Price

-28.5% · 1Y

Ask anything about 5838.T

Answered from Rakuten Bank, Ltd. fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 17% of peers
low 6.1x13.2xhigh 13.3x
ROEbetter than 83% of peers
low 11%20%high 23%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 4.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
5838.T Rakuten Bank, Ltd.¥5810.00--13.2x20.0%7464
BCI.SN Banco de Credito e InversionesCLP 63800.00--12.6x14.2%8854
PNB.NS Punjab National Bank₹122.50--6.1x15.1%6870
UNIONBANK.NS Union Bank of India₹182.85₹1946% below6.2x16.3%6880
BSANTANDER.SN Banco Santander ChileCLP 79.20--13.3x23.3%8151
BANKBARODA.NS Bank of Baroda Limited₹236.42₹2506% below6.7x11.3%6160
INDIANB.NS Indian Bank₹855.70--8.7x16.1%6869

Sector report card

Where 5838.T ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…