4 models fit UFP Industries Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 3 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Silver63
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionUFP Industries Inc. Common Stock (UFPI)
Fair value (4 models)
$105
ACCE price target
$90.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST; previously $125 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST.
Price used: $81.23 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
22.8% below
+29.5% to fair value
ACCE score
47
out of 100
Analysts
50% buy
6 covering
P/E
19.1x
forward 7.4x
1-year return
-12.1%
Dividend yield
1.78%
UFP Industries Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
UFP Industries makes engineered wood components, including framing lumber, structural building products, and the decking, fencing and railing lines sold through home centers and lumber yards, and it also runs a large retail-facing operation for pressure-treated and specialty wood. The advantage is scale and distribution in a fragmented, commodity-exposed category, though at a 16.1% gross margin and 5.5% operating margin the business gives up little room for error when lumber prices move. Revenue growth of 2.6% is slow, and the 8.0% ROE says the equity is not earning much on its capital, which is why the score sits at 44/100. The reason to look closer is the valuation gap: the forward P/E of 7.4 sits well below the trailing 17.7, which implies the market expects earnings to recover sharply, and that recovery is the thing to test against housing starts and lumber pricing before any position is considered.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings declining despite revenue
Revenue grew 2.6% year over year, but earnings fell 13.0%, so margins are being squeezed. Operating margin of 5.5% and net margin of 4.0% leave little cushion if this continues.
moderate
Short interest elevated
Short interest stands at 5.8% of ownership. That is a meaningful bearish bet for a company whose earnings are shrinking year over year.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
The forward P/E of 7.4x sits well below the sector median of 17.4x, so the shares look cheap on earnings expected ahead.
Analysts' mean price target of $102.60 sits 30.9% above the share price, though that target is the analysts' view, not ours.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of 4.0% and return on equity of 8.0% are thin, so the business earns little on each sales dollar and on shareholder capital.
Revenue grew just 2.6% over the past year, below its 4.2% five-year average per year, which suggests momentum is slowing.
Lumber price deflation and the housing cycle remain the key risk on file, and they could pressure sales and margins further.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where UFPI's valuation models land
Price
$81.23
Model fair value
$105
Model range
$79.31 to $115
Fair value $105
Price $81.23
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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