4 models fit Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Silver67
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionSimpson Manufacturing Company Inc. Common Stock (SSD)
Fair value (4 models)
$136
ACCE price target
$176
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST; previously $197 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST.
Price used: $184 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
36.0% above
-26.5% to fair value
ACCE score
66
out of 100
Analysts
60% buy
5 covering
P/E
20.1x
forward 19.3x
1-year return
+4.2%
Dividend yield
0.64%
Simpson Manufacturing Company Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Simpson Manufacturing makes structural connectors, anchors, and fastening systems for residential and commercial construction, including the Simpson Strong-Tie line used to tie framing, foundations and decks together. Its edge is a broad, specified catalogue that builders and engineers write into designs, which gives it pricing power, with a 45.8% gross margin and a 24.4% operating margin supporting an 18.7% ROE. Revenue growth of 6.3% is modest, but the business sits on repair, remodel and code-driven demand rather than new-home starts alone. At 17.6x forward earnings against a trailing 19.3x, the market expects earnings to grow into a multiple that is not stretched for a company this profitable. The score of 62/100 and the lack of index membership suggest the name is not on most screens, which may be worth a closer look at the housing-cycle exposure.
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Score down sharply
ACCE score fell from 71 to 62 over 90 days, with the Momentum component at 47. Quality (84) is still strong, so the drop is mostly in momentum and timing signals rather than the business.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $298M, a sign the business turns sales into real cash.
Return on equity of 18.7% and net margin of 15.7% show the company earns strong profits on the money invested in it.
Analysts' mean price target of $219.00 sits 24.1% above the current share price, and 60% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue grew only 6.3% over the last year, well below the 13.0% yearly average of the past five years.
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 17.6x, slightly above the sector median of 17.4x, so there is no obvious valuation discount.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 26, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where SSD's valuation models land
Price
$184.36
Model fair value
$136
Model range
$95.84 to $160
Fair value $136
Price $184
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores