3 models fit The Trade Desk Inc. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze44
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionThe Trade Desk Inc. Class A Common Stock (TTD)
Fair value (3 models)
$20.63
ACCE price target
$15.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $18.18 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CEST.
Price used: $13.00 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
37.0% below
+58.7% to fair value
ACCE score
51
out of 100
Analysts
14% buy
36 covering
P/E
15.9x
forward 13.9x
1-year return
-76.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
The Trade Desk Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
The Trade Desk operates a self-serve demand-side platform, the software advertisers and agencies use to buy programmatic display, video, audio and connected-TV inventory across the open internet, with its Kokai AI bidding layer and OpenPath supply-side integrations as the core products. At 76.9% gross margin and 14.2% operating margin, the business earns real software economics, but revenue growth of 3.0% is far below where the company has historically run, and the market is pricing that slowdown with a 14.7 trailing and 12.1 forward P/E on a $5.8B market cap. The near-term swing factor is whether Kokai adoption and the Amazon DSP competition stabilize spend with its largest agency holding company clients, which is the question a deeper look would need to answer. The stock scores 51 out of 100 and carries no index membership, so it sits outside the screens most passive flows key off, which may be part of why the valuation looks compressed. Return on equity of 15.4% is respectable, but it is not yet evidence that growth has re-accelerated.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse vs revenue
Earnings down 23.6% YoY while revenue grew only 3.0%. Margin compression or one-time charges suggest profitability headwinds despite solid gross margin of 76.9%.
high
Elevated short interest
24.2% short interest is material. Combined with earnings decline and score drop (54 to 51 in 90 days), warrants attention to near-term catalyst risk.
moderate
Insider selling signal
Last 10 disclosures show $1.13M in sales, zero buys. Modest absolute value but directional concern given earnings pressure.
moderate
Growth deceleration
5-year CAGR of 22.4% has slowed to 3.0% YoY revenue growth. Suggests market saturation or competitive headwinds in core advertising platform.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
The company generated $583M in free cash flow last twelve months and trades at a 10.2% free cash flow yield, well above risk-free rates.
Trade Desk has returned 3.8% of shares to shareholders while maintaining a conservative 0.17 debt-to-equity ratio, demonstrating capital discipline.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue growth collapsed to 3.0% year-over-year from a 22.4% five-year average, signaling a fundamental slowdown in the core business.
The stock missed earnings by 36.4% in the latest report, and the reverse DCF implies negative 6.5% cash flow growth over the next five years.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TTD's valuation models land
Price
$13.00
Model fair value
$20.63
Model range
$16.62 to $26.87
Fair value $20.63
Price $13.00
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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