3 models fit Trane Technologies plc and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze48
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTrane Technologies plc (TT)
Fair value (3 models)
$257
ACCE price target
$425
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $283 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $445 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
73.4% above
-42.3% to fair value
ACCE score
54
out of 100
Analysts
65% buy
26 covering
P/E
35.1x
forward 25.2x
1-year return
+7.0%
Dividend yield
0.84%
Trane Technologies plc in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Trane manufactures HVAC systems, controls, and refrigeration equipment for commercial buildings and industrial facilities, with roughly 40% of revenue from aftermarket services and parts. The company benefits from secular demand for energy-efficient climate control and a fragmented competitor base that limits pricing power for smaller players, while Trane's scale and installed base create recurring service revenue that stabilizes cash flow. Commercial real estate fundamentals remain soft, but data center cooling demand is accelerating as AI infrastructure buildout drives power density requirements that only Trane's premium equipment can reliably handle. The stock trades at 27x forward earnings despite 10.6% revenue growth and 19.3% operating margins, a valuation that assumes data center tailwinds persist and offset near-term CRE headwinds. At current multiples, the margin of safety is thin unless the company can demonstrate that data center revenue is large enough to offset a prolonged slowdown in traditional commercial HVAC.