3 models fit Johnson Controls International plc Ordinary Share and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver60
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionJohnson Controls International plc Ordinary Share (JCI)
Fair value (3 models)
$81.55
ACCE price target
$143
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $83.41 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $144 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
76.5% above
-43.4% to fair value
ACCE score
59
out of 100
Analysts
55% buy
22 covering
P/E
40.7x
forward 23.5x
1-year return
+30.2%
Dividend yield
1.12%
Johnson Controls International plc Ordinary Share in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Johnson Controls manufactures HVAC systems, building automation software, and fire and security equipment sold primarily to commercial real estate owners and facility managers. The company benefits from secular demand for energy-efficient climate control and the shift toward integrated building management platforms that reduce operational costs. AI-driven predictive maintenance and remote diagnostics are driving higher software attach rates and recurring revenue, with OpenBlue, its cloud platform, now representing a material portion of new contract value. The forward PE of 25.8x reflects investor confidence in margin expansion as the software mix grows, yet the stock trades at a meaningful discount to pure-play software peers despite recurring revenue now exceeding 30% of total revenue. Commercial real estate fundamentals remain challenged, but Johnson Controls' installed base and switching costs create a durable moat that should sustain growth even if new construction softens.