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TRV
ACCE-researched

The Travelers Companies Inc. Common Stock (TRV) fair value

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · NYSE · United States
$398.28-1.77%
Market cap $84.6BNext earnings 2026-10-16Updated Oct 19, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 9% below our fair value
Price
$398.28
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$439
Model range
$429 to $448
Fair value $439
Price $398
2 models fit The Travelers Companies Inc. Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver76
Valued as an insurer: Residual income, P/E comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionThe Travelers Companies Inc. Common Stock (TRV)
Fair value (2 models)
$439
ACCE price target
$431
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST; previously $430 since 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $378 since 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CEST.
Price used: $398 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
9.4% below
+10.3% to fair value
ACCE score
71
out of 100
Analysts
21% buy
29 covering
P/E
10.5x
forward 10.4x
1-year return
+48.0%
Dividend yield
1.18%

The Travelers Companies Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

The Travelers Companies writes commercial and personal property and casualty insurance, including business property, workers' compensation, and auto and homeowners policies, with a large specialty and bond business alongside. Its edge is underwriting discipline and scale in commercial lines, which shows up in a 27.5% return on equity and a 20.0% operating margin. Revenue is slipping slightly, down 0.5%, so the thesis rests on margin and capital returns rather than top-line growth. At 10.4 times trailing earnings and 12.5 times forward, the stock is priced below what its profitability would suggest, though the forward multiple sitting above the trailing one implies analysts expect earnings to dip before recovering. The question for a deeper look is whether pricing and margins hold as the revenue base flattens.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Revenue growth near flat
    Revenue grew only 0.3% year over year, while earnings rose 57.1%. Earnings growth is outpacing the top line, so the jump may not repeat.
  • moderate
    Insider selling without buying
    Insiders disclosed $8.27M in sales across the last 10 filings and no buys. Insider ownership is only 0.3%, so the signal is modest.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-09-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Free cash flow of $10.6B over the last twelve months gives a 13.1% yield at today's price, a strong cash return.
  • Return on equity of 26.5% and a 17.0% net margin show the business earns high returns on the capital it holds.
  • Trading at 10.3x trailing earnings, the stock sits below the sector median forward multiple of 11.9x, with forward P/E at 12.7x.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue grew only +0.3% over the last year, far below the 8.8% five-year average pace of growth.
  • Last quarter's +15.1% earnings beat may reflect benign catastrophe losses, which could reverse in a heavy storm season.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where TRV's valuation models land
Price
$398.28
Model fair value
$439
Model range
$429 to $448
Fair value $439
Price $398
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
Residual income
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish21% buy · 29 covering analysts
● Strong buy 5● Buy 1● Hold 17● Sell 2● Strong sell 4
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+2.2%
1 month
+10.5%
3 months
+2.8%
6 months
+31.6%
YTD
+37.3%
1 year
+48.0%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CESTFair value$439$430$390
18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CESTFair value$430$425$390
18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CESTRatingFairly valuedfirst publication$390
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$431$378$390
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$425$448$390
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$448$397$369
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$397$402$360
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$402$411$363
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$411$406$362
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$406$416$362

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth27Value74Quality85Momentum97Total71
Valuation
Trailing P/E
10.5x
Forward P/E
10.4x
PEG
2.70
P/B
1.96x
EV / Revenue
1.5x
Book value/sh
$141.51
Enterprise value
$71.4B
Profitability
ROE
27.5%
FCF yield
12.54%
ROIC
12.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.28
Dividend yield
1.18%
Beta
0.44

Price

+47.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about TRV

Answered from The Travelers Companies Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 5.1x10.5xhigh 21.5x
ROEbetter than 67% of peers
low 14%28%high 46%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.2%1.2%high 2.9%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
TRV The Travelers Companies Inc. Common Stock$398.28$4399% below10.5x27.5%8571
ALL Allstate Corporation (The) Common Stock$259.10--5.1x46.1%8584
PGR Progressive Corporation (The) Common Stock$229.62$2262% above11.5x33.2%7763
CB Chubb Limited Common Stock$363.95$31715% above12.4x14.2%7561
8725.T MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc.¥5205.00¥352748% above8.6x16.1%7279
8630.T Sompo Holdings, Inc.¥6994.00¥513836% above21.5x14.4%6480
FFH.TO Fairfax Financial Holdings LimitedC$2515.29C$27649% below8.8x16.5%7257

Sector report card

Where TRV ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 29, 2026
    Applied Announces 2026 Pinnacle Award Winners
  • PR Newswire•Sep 29, 2026
    Corgi Insurance Hires Trucking Veteran and Ex-Nirvana Senior Director Stephen Segroves
  • Business Wire•Sep 22, 2026
    Travelers Risk Index: Cyber Threats Return as the Top Business Concern
5 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 16
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
Oct 16
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 1
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR