Market cap ¥7.46TNext earnings 2026-11-19Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 49% above our fair value
Price
¥5255.00
Model fair valueConfidence: good
¥3527
Model range
¥1968 to ¥5086
Fair value ¥3527
Price ¥5255
2 models fit MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver60
Valued as an insurer: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionMS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (8725.T)
Fair value (2 models)
¥3527
ACCE price target
¥4920
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 15:59 CEST.
Rating published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST.
Price used: ¥5255 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
49.0% above
-32.9% to fair value
ACCE score
79
out of 100
P/E
8.6x
forward 12.8x
1-year return
+60.3%
Dividend yield
2.69%
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
MS&AD Insurance Group is a Japanese property and casualty insurer, writing motor, fire and marine business through Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance and Aioi Nissay Dowa alongside a large overseas footprint, including Mitsui Sumitomo's Asian and global specialty units. Its edge is scale and distribution in a home market where personal lines and corporate risk are sticky and concentrated among a few large players, which supports a 23.0% operating margin and a 16.1% ROE. Revenue growth of only 2.4% is modest, so the thesis rests on margin durability and capital returns rather than top-line expansion. At a trailing P/E of 8.5 against a forward P/E of 12.7, the market is pricing in some earnings normalization, a gap worth testing against the group's underwriting trends and buyback pace. The name is worth a deeper look if the forward earnings path holds up, since the valuation spread between trailing and forward multiples is the central question.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings growth outpacing revenue
Earnings rose 49.8% YoY while revenue grew only 2.4%, so the profit jump may reflect one-off or non-recurring items rather than durable operating gains.
moderate
Price sits above ACCE target
The stock trades 6.8% above the ACCE price target of ¥4920.00, with the current price at ¥5255.00.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
The stock trades at 8.6x trailing earnings, a low multiple for a company earning a 16.1% return on equity.
The dividend yield of 2.7% pays shareholders while they wait for the share price to re-rate.
Revenue grew at an average of 12.9% a year over five years, showing the business has expanded well over time.
Why it could disappoint
Latest quarterly earnings per share came in 12.3% below what analysts expected, a clear miss.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 5185.45 sits slightly below the current share price, offering no upside on their view.
Revenue growth slowed to 2.4% in the latest year, far below the five-year average.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where 8725.T's valuation models land
Price
¥5255.00
Model fair value
¥3527
Model range
¥1968 to ¥5086
Fair value ¥3527
Price ¥5255
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
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