Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as an insurer: Residual income and P/E comparison.
ACCE opinionTrupanion Inc. Common Stock (TRUP)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$31.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $29.32 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
47
out of 100
Analysts
33% buy
6 covering
P/E
56.4x
forward 1428.6x
1-year return
-33.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Trupanion Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Trupanion sells subscription pet health insurance, mainly through its Trupanion and Pets Best brands, and pays most of the claims itself rather than passing risk to a carrier. Its edge is a large, sticky book of recurring premiums and a claims-data advantage that compounds with policy count, which is why revenue is still growing at 11.1%. The near-term question is whether that top-line growth converts into profit: operating margin is only 1.6% and gross margin is 22.6%, so the thesis rests on operating leverage showing up in upcoming results. At a trailing P/E of 52.6 and a forward P/E above 1,000, the market is pricing in a large earnings ramp that has not yet appeared, and the 6.1% ROE says it hasn't arrived. The name merits a deeper look if you can get comfortable underwriting that margin expansion, and it scores 42/100 with no index membership, so the work is ahead of it.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings falling despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 11.1% year over year, but earnings fell 28.9%, and the operating margin is only 1.6%, leaving little cushion if costs keep rising.
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
The ACCE score dropped 9 points, from 51 to 42, with quality at 43 and momentum at 40, so the deterioration is broad rather than confined to one factor.
moderate
High short interest
Short interest stands at 10.7%, meaning a meaningful share of the float is betting against the stock, which can amplify moves in either direction.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 11.1% year over year, and the company has averaged 23.5% growth per year over five years.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $75M, and the free cash flow yield at the current price is 6.1%.
Analysts' mean price target of $33.25 sits 20.9% above the current share price, and the latest quarter beat expected earnings by 45.5%.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin is only 1.5% and return on equity is 6.1%, leaving little cushion if claims costs rise faster than premiums.
The forward P/E of 1428.6x compares with a sector median of 11.9x, so the shares price in a very steep earnings recovery.
Only 33% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and the diluted share count rose 3.3% last fiscal year.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TRUP's valuation models land
Price
$29.32
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $25.68
Model
Fair value
Upside
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores