Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery · Nasdaq Stockholm · Sweden
kr 450.40+0.94%
Market cap kr 98.9BNext earnings 2026-10-23Updated Oct 22, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 55% above our fair value
Price
kr 450.40
Model fair valueConfidence: good
kr 291
Model range
kr 138 to kr 475
Fair value kr 291
Price kr 450
5 models fit Trelleborg AB (publ) and they disagree: 1 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze55
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTrelleborg AB (publ) (TREL-B.ST)
Fair value (5 models)
kr 291
ACCE price target
kr 478
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: kr 450 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
54.5% above
-35.3% to fair value
ACCE score
65
out of 100
P/E
26.8x
forward 20.4x
1-year return
+18.0%
Dividend yield
1.79%
Trelleborg AB (publ) in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Trelleborg makes engineered polymer seals, anti-vibration mounts and industrial sealing systems, with a large share of revenue tied to automotive and heavy-vehicle customers, and it has been moving its mix toward more specialised, higher-margin applications. The moat rests on qualification: once a seal or damper is designed into a platform, it is hard to swap out for the life of that platform, which gives the company recurring replacement demand and pricing it can defend. The 7.1% revenue growth and 17.7% operating margin at a 37.8% gross margin point to a business that is still expanding while keeping its cost base under control. The stock trades at 26.8x trailing earnings and 22.9x forward, so the market already expects earnings to rise meaningfully, which makes the next few reporting periods the test of whether margins hold as volumes recover. With a 10.2% return on equity and no index membership listed in our data, this is a mid-cap quality industrial that merits a deeper look at its order intake and margin trajectory before any position decision.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Valuation stretched vs model
Shares trade 54.5% above the model fair value of kr 291.48, and P/E of 27.6 sits well above the 20.4 forward multiple, so the market is pricing in earnings growth that has not yet arrived.
moderate
Slow long-run revenue growth
Revenue grew only 0.9% a year over five years, against 7.1% in the latest year, so the recent acceleration needs to hold for the premium multiple to make sense.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last 12 months reached SEK 3.7B, giving the business real cash to fund itself and reward shareholders.
Diluted share count fell 8.9% last fiscal year, so each remaining share now owns a bigger slice of the company.
Forward P/E of 20.4x sits below the sector median of 22.9x, so the shares are not expensive against industrial peers.
Why it could disappoint
The shares trade 54.5% above the model fair value of kr 291.48, and all five valuation models in the consensus point to that gap.
Return on invested capital of 6.5% is thin, so the business earns little above what its capital costs.
Revenue growth averaged just 0.9% a year over five years, well below the 7.1% recorded in the latest year.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TREL-B.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 450.40
Model fair value
kr 291
Model range
kr 138 to kr 475
Fair value kr 291
Price kr 450
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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