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TR

Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. Common Stock (TR) fair value

Consumer Defensive · Confectioners · NYSE · United States
$34.78-6.48%
Market cap $2.6BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 20, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 48% above our fair value
Price
$34.78
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$23.51
Model range
$19.41 to $26.00
Fair value $23.51
Price $34.78
4 models fit Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 3 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionTootsie Roll Industries Inc. Common Stock (TR)
Fair value (4 models)
$23.51
ACCE price target
$33.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $28.29 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $34.78 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
47.9% above
-32.4% to fair value
ACCE score
38
out of 100
P/E
27.6x
forward -17.8x
1-year return
-9.6%
Dividend yield
0.97%

Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Tootsie Roll makes branded candy, chiefly Tootsie Roll, Junior Mints, Charms Blow Pops and Dubble Bubble, and sells it mostly through grocery, mass and convenience channels in the US. The moat is shelf presence and brand longevity in a category where consumers buy by habit, though that franchise has not translated into top-line growth, with revenue down 0.6% and operating margin at 8.9% against a 34.5% gross margin. The near-term catalyst is margin recovery as input costs (sugar, cocoa, corn syrup, packaging) ease and pricing holds, which would matter more than volume. What makes it worth a look is the valuation: at 30.4x trailing and 26.7x forward earnings, the stock is priced for a growth profile the fundamentals do not currently show, and a 10.3% ROE with no index membership makes it a narrow, under-followed name. The score of 38/100 reflects that gap, so the question for the team is whether margin repair is visible in the next few quarters or whether the multiple is simply too full.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings falling fast
    Earnings are down 23.9% year over year and quarter over quarter growth is -24.0%, while revenue is down only 0.6%. Margins are being squeezed hard.
  • moderate
    Insider selling, no buying
    Insiders sold $9.86M across the last 10 disclosed transactions and bought nothing. Insiders hold 57.7% of the stock, so selling is worth noting.
  • moderate
    Score down sharply in 90 days
    The ACCE score fell 9 points, from 47 to 38, over 90 days. Quality (66) is holding up, but momentum (31) and value (46) are weak.
  • moderate
    Trades above valuation anchors
    At a 30.4 P/E on falling earnings, there is little margin of safety.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Debt to equity of 0.01 means the company carries almost no borrowing, leaving little financial strain.
  • Free cash flow of $96M over the last twelve months gives the business real cash to fund dividends and buybacks.
  • The share count fell 0.8% last fiscal year, so each remaining share claims a slightly larger slice of earnings.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue shrank 0.6% year over year, well below the 9.2% yearly average over five years.
  • The stock trades at a 30.4x trailing P/E against a sector median forward P/E of 18.3x, a steep premium for slowing sales.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where TR's valuation models land
Price
$34.78
Model fair value
$23.51
Model range
$19.41 to $26.00
Fair value $23.51
Price $34.78
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-9.0%
1 month
-8.4%
3 months
-7.3%
6 months
-16.9%
YTD
-2.2%
1 year
-9.6%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$37.26
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTFair value$23.51$28.29$37.26
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$28.29$27.66$38.23
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$33.00first publication$37.48
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$27.66$27.25$37.48
7 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$27.25$27.65$37.61
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$27.65$28.45$37.78
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$28.45$28.07$37.97
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$28.07$27.44$37.60
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$27.44$28.34$37.76

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth7Value46Quality66Momentum31Total38
Valuation
Trailing P/E
27.6x
Forward P/E
-17.8x
PEG
no data
P/B
3.00x
EV / Revenue
3.7x
Book value/sh
$12.70
Enterprise value
$2.7B
Profitability
ROE
10.3%
FCF yield
3.52%
ROIC
8.6%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.01
Dividend yield
0.97%
Beta
0.41

Price

-4.4% · 1Y

Ask anything about TR

Answered from Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 19.2x27.6xhigh 27.6x
ROEbetter than 33% of peers
low -82%10%high 33%
Div yieldbetter than 17% of peers
low 0.0%1.0%high 3.3%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
TR Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. Common Stock$34.78$2448% above27.6x10.3%6638
CLA-B.ST Cloetta AB (publ)kr 58.35kr 3852% above19.2x15.1%6871
BARN.SW Barry Callebaut AGCHF 1171.00CHF 76254% above26.1x9.4%3044
HSY The Hershey Company Common Stock$175.64$12837% above23.2x32.8%7661
MDLZ Mondelez International Inc. Class A Common Stock$65.19$4932% above23.0x13.3%6364
LISN.SW Lindt & SpruengliCHF 86900.00CHF 5905047% above27.4x15.9%7538
SOWG Sow Good Inc. Common Stock$1.90----82.3%3033

Sector report card

Where TR ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Jun 16, 2026
    /C O R R E C T I O N -- Tootsie Roll Industries/
12 filings of 34
October 2026
Oct 22
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-21
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 1
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-01
View on SEC →
August 2026
Aug 7
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-06-30
View on SEC →
9 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR