5 models fit The Hershey Company Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionThe Hershey Company Common Stock (HSY)
Fair value (5 models)
$128
ACCE price target
$181
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $193 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $170 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
32.0% above
-24.3% to fair value
ACCE score
61
out of 100
Analysts
35% buy
23 covering
P/E
23.2x
forward 17.2x
1-year return
-6.6%
Dividend yield
3.31%
The Hershey Company Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Hershey makes the Hershey's, Reese's, Kit Kat (under license), Twizzlers and Jolly Rancher lines, and it is the dominant chocolate and candy supplier in the US, which gives it pricing power in a category where shoppers are slow to switch brands. That scale and brand concentration show up in the numbers: a 38.4% gross margin, a 23.1% operating margin and a 32.8% return on equity. Revenue growth of 6.6% is solid for a mature confectioner, and the question for the next few quarters is whether it can keep pricing through cocoa costs that have been volatile. At a 22.4x trailing P/E against a 16.6x forward P/E, the market is pricing in a meaningful earnings recovery or a gradual normalization of input costs, which is the assumption worth testing before going further. The stock carries a 55/100 score and sits outside major index memberships, so the case rests on the fundamentals rather than on index flows.
Last 10 disclosures show $30.93M in sales, zero buys. Insiders liquidating while stock trades near fair value suggests limited conviction at current levels.
moderate
Score deterioration and elevated leverage
ACCE score down 4 points in 90 days (59 to 55). Debt/Equity 1.17 is material for a defensive consumer name; limits financial flexibility if growth stalls.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Hershey trades at 17.8x forward earnings, below the 18.1x sector median, despite 5-year revenue growth of 7.5% annually.
The company generated $1.7B in free cash flow last 12 months and returned capital via a 3.5% dividend yield.
Why it could disappoint
Current price implies only 3.0% annual cash flow growth over the next 5 years, well below historical 7.5% revenue growth.
Return on invested capital of 7.2% lags the 5.2% risk-free rate, meaning capital deployed does not exceed the cost of borrowing.
Debt to equity of 1.17 combined with a 3.5% dividend yield leaves limited flexibility if cocoa costs spike again.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where HSY's valuation models land
Price
$169.64
Model fair value
$128
Model range
$47.50 to $183
Fair value $128
Price $170
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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