4 models fit Turning Point Brands Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTurning Point Brands Inc. Common Stock (TPB)
Fair value (4 models)
$45.33
ACCE price target
$51.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $56.50 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $63.99 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
41.2% above
-29.2% to fair value
ACCE score
44
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
6 covering
P/E
27.6x
forward 28.5x
1-year return
-27.1%
Dividend yield
0.48%
Turning Point Brands Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Turning Point Brands makes Zig-Zag rolling papers, Stoker's and Beech-Nut-adjacent smokeless products, and the Vapor King and NewGate lines, with its FastFig and Zig-Zag distribution sold through convenience and tobacco retailers. The Zig-Zag franchise is the core asset: a long-standing brand with pricing power in a category that shrinks in volume but holds margin, which explains the 56.7% gross margin. Revenue grew 22.6%, but the 4.2% operating margin shows how much of that top-line growth has not yet reached operating profit, and the 38.2 forward P/E against a trailing 26.0 means the market is already pricing in earnings expansion that the company has to deliver. The name is interesting now because the gap between sales momentum and margin conversion is either the thesis or the trap, and the next few reported quarters should show which. The 45/100 score and absence from any index suggest the market is not yet paying for that conversion, so the work is in the operating leverage and the integration of recent acquisitions.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse despite revenue growth
Revenue rose 22.6% YoY but earnings fell 77.2%, and the operating margin of 4.2% leaves little cushion. The gap between top-line growth and profit needs explaining before sizing a position.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 16.5%, which means a sizeable share of the float is betting against the stock. That raises volatility in either direction.
moderate
Score falling and leverage elevated
The ACCE score slipped from 49 to 44 over 90 days, with the margin component at just 17/100. Debt to equity of 0.87 on FCF of $44M adds to the case for caution.
moderate
Trading above valuation markers
Upside looks limited on these measures.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 22.6% year over year, well ahead of its 2.7% average annual pace over five years.
Free cash flow of $44M over the last twelve months gives the company real cash to fund operations and debt.
Diluted share count fell 3.3% last fiscal year, so each remaining share claims a larger slice of the business.
Why it could disappoint
At a 27.4x forward P/E against a sector median of 18.7x, the stock costs far more than its peers for the same earnings.
Net margin of 8.8% and return on invested capital of 7.2% are thin for a business carrying debt equal to 0.87 of its equity.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where TPB's valuation models land
Price
$63.99
Model fair value
$45.33
Model range
$32.42 to $58.41
Fair value $45.33
Price $63.99
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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