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HAYPP.ST

Haypp Group AB (publ) (HAYPP.ST) fair value

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco · Nasdaq Stockholm · Sweden
kr 172.60+2.37%
Market cap kr 5.4BNext earnings 2026-11-06Updated Oct 22, 2026
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Our verdict
Trades 176% above our fair value
Price
kr 172.60
Model fair valueConfidence: good
kr 62.43
Model range
kr 50.02 to kr 72.77
Fair value kr 62.43
Price kr 173
2 models fit Haypp Group AB (publ) and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze50
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionHaypp Group AB (publ) (HAYPP.ST)
Fair value (2 models)
kr 62.43
ACCE price target
kr 158
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: kr 173 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
176.5% above
-63.8% to fair value
ACCE score
49
out of 100
P/E
690.4x
forward 36.0x
1-year return
+12.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Haypp Group AB (publ) in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Haypp Group sells nicotine pouches, snus and related products direct to consumers through its own e-commerce sites, which makes it an online retailer of a regulated, high-margin category rather than a tobacco manufacturer. The moat is distribution and customer data: a direct-to-consumer model that sidesteps the shelf-space and retail-margin battles that bigger incumbents fight in physical stores. Revenue growth of 27.7% is the clearest signal in the data, and the market is paying for it, with a trailing P/E of 674.4 compressing to 35.2 on forward estimates, so the bet rests on earnings catching up with sales. Operating margin of just 0.6% and gross margin of 10.8% show how thin the economics are today, so the case depends on scale and mix improving rather than on current profitability. Worth a deeper look if you believe the pouch category keeps compounding and that the operating leverage shows up in the reported numbers, not just the forecasts.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Stretched valuation vs model
    Shares trade 176.5% above the model fair value of kr 62.43, and the trailing P/E of 655.2 reflects near-zero earnings (net margin +0.2%).
  • moderate
    Earnings collapsing despite revenue growth
    Revenue grew 27.7% year on year, but earnings fell 85.7%, and operating margin is only +0.6%, so the growth is not reaching the bottom line.
  • moderate
    Thin profitability
    ROE of +1.1% and gross margin of +10.8% leave little cushion if revenue growth slows or costs rise.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 27.7% over the past year, well above its 17.4% average annual pace across five years.
  • Trailing twelve-month free cash flow reached SEK 130M, showing the business generates real cash.
  • Latest quarterly earnings per share beat expectations, coming in at 0.62 against 0.31 expected.
Why it could disappoint
  • The shares trade 176.5% above the model fair value of kr 62.43, a wide gap for a business earning almost nothing.
  • Net margin is just 0.2% and return on equity 1.1%, so profits barely reach shareholders.
  • The trailing P/E of 655.2x and forward P/E of 40.0x sit far above the sector median of 18.1x.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 6, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where HAYPP.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 172.60
Model fair value
kr 62.43
Model range
kr 50.02 to kr 72.77
Fair value kr 62.43
Price kr 173
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

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  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

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Company insiders
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Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Recent performance

1 week
+6.0%
1 month
+20.4%
3 months
+34.0%
6 months
+38.1%
YTD
+20.4%
1 year
+12.1%

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CESTACCE price targetkr 158first publicationkr 169
22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CESTFair valuekr 62.43first publicationkr 162
22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publicationkr 162

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

This security trades in SEK. Exchange-rate movements can increase or reduce the result in your own currency.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth52Value28Quality34Momentum83Total49
Valuation
Trailing P/E
690.4x
Forward P/E
36.0x
PEG
no data
P/B
6.38x
EV / Revenue
1.1x
Book value/sh
kr 21.66
Enterprise value
kr 4.7B
Profitability
ROE
1.1%
FCF yield
2.53%
ROIC
4.1%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.28
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
0.96

Price

+10.8% · 1Y

Ask anything about HAYPP.ST

Answered from Haypp Group AB (publ) fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0x690.4xhigh 690.4x
ROEbetter than 40% of peers
low -429%1%high 37%
Div yieldbetter than 33% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 8.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
HAYPP.ST Haypp Group AB (publ)kr 172.60kr 62176% above690.4x1.1%3449
UVV Universal Corporation Common Stock$39.67$5932% below51.7x2.3%3433
TPB Turning Point Brands Inc. Common Stock$66.87$4548% above27.6x17.6%5944
GODFRYPHLP.NS Godfrey Phillips India Limited₹1727.00--19.0x-8441
ISPR Ispire Technology Inc. Common Stock$1.36----428.6%1329
RYM RYTHM Inc. Common Stock$15.63----10.5%3834
IMB.L Imperial Brands£28.48£4334% below13.4x37.1%6861

Sector report card

Where HAYPP.ST ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…