Toll Brothers builds and sells luxury single-family homes, active adult communities, and high-rise condominiums, mostly in move-up and second-home markets, and it also runs a land development and rental apartment arm. Its edge is scale and land position: it controls a large, well-located land bank and has the balance sheet to keep building through the cycle while smaller builders pull back. The near-term catalyst is any easing in mortgage rates that reopens the move-up buyer, since revenue has been shrinking (down 9.7%) and the business needs volume to recover. At 10.7 times trailing earnings and 9.6 times forward, the stock is priced for a continued slowdown, with a 14.4% return on equity and a 14.6% operating margin still showing the franchise is profitable. Revenue has fallen, so the thesis hinges on whether demand stabilizes before margins compress further; a 52/100 score suggests the case is not yet clean enough to act on without deeper work.
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
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| Date | Type | New | Previous | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST | Fair value | $192 | $206 | $136 |
| 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST | Rating | Undervalued | first publication | $136 |
| 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST | ACCE price target | $147 | $145 | $134 |
| 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST | Fair value | $206 | $190 | $133 |
| 1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST | Fair value | $190 | $193 | $136 |
| 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST | ACCE price target | $145 | first publication | $137 |
| 15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST | Fair value | $193 | $196 | $135 |
| 12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST | Fair value | $196 | $200 | $132 |
| 5 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST | Fair value | $200 | $202 | $142 |
| 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CEST | Fair value | $202 | $295 | $146 |
Answered from Toll Brothers Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.
| Company | Price | Fair value | vs fair value | P/E | ROE | Quality | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Toll Brothers Inc. Common Stock | $139.90 | $192 | 27% below | 10.9x | 14.4% | 60 | 50 |
| 1928.T Sekisui House, Ltd. | ¥3504.00 | - | - | 8.8x | 12.3% | 55 | 48 |
| NVR NVR Inc. Common Stock | $5983.68 | $6261 | 4% below | 16.5x | 31.5% | 70 | 47 |
| LEN Lennar Corporation Class A Common Stock | $84.92 | $109 | 22% below | 14.7x | 6.0% | 52 | 36 |
| PHM PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock | $121.19 | $162 | 25% below | 12.9x | 14.9% | 72 | 50 |
| BTRW.L Barratt Redrow plc | £3.26 | £5 | 35% below | 19.2x | 3.1% | 47 | 63 |
| PSN.L Persimmon Plc | £12.80 | £20 | 35% below | 13.6x | 8.6% | 59 | 65 |
Where TOL ranks against its sector peers on each metric.