Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction · NYSE · United States
$121.19+1.43%
Market cap $23.1BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 25% below our fair value
Price
$121.19
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$162
Model range
$131 to $180
Fair value $162
Price $121
4 models fit PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 3 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver62
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionPulteGroup Inc. Common Stock (PHM)
Fair value (4 models)
$162
ACCE price target
$128
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $164 since 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $120 since 25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: $121 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
25.1% below
+33.6% to fair value
ACCE score
50
out of 100
Analysts
56% buy
18 covering
P/E
12.9x
forward 12.4x
1-year return
+0.3%
Dividend yield
0.87%
PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
PulteGroup builds and sells single-family homes across the US under the Pulte, Centex, Del Webb and DiVosta brands, with Del Webb's age-restricted communities as its most distinctive franchise. Its edge is scale and a land-light operating model that lets it adjust community pace and pricing faster than most builders, and its mortgage and title arms add a captive financing channel. The near-term catalyst is any easing in mortgage rates that restores buyer demand, since revenue has contracted 9.6% and the stock is pricing in a prolonged downturn. At a trailing P/E of 11.3 and a forward P/E of 10.2, with a 15.7% operating margin and 14.9% ROE, the valuation looks undemanding relative to those returns, but the declining top line means the debate is whether margins hold through the trough. This is a name worth a deeper look on the margin durability question and the housing demand cycle, not a conclusion in itself.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue and earnings deceleration
Revenue down 9.6% YoY and earnings down 18.2% YoY, despite QoQ bounce of 16.9%. Suggests cyclical weakness in housing demand outweighing sequential recovery.
moderate
Margin quality score collapse
ACCE M score fell from 40 to 40 (stable), but absolute operating margin of 15.7% masks earnings decline. Profitability metrics lag growth and valuation scores, signaling operational stress.
moderate
Insider selling without offsetting buying
Last 10 disclosures show $1.29M in insider sales and $0.00M in buys. Absence of conviction buying during valuation dip is a mild negative signal.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
The company generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the last twelve months, yielding 5.0% on current market price.
PHM returned 14.9% on equity and 12.0% on invested capital while maintaining a conservative 0.19 debt-to-equity ratio.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 9.6% year over year, and the current stock price implies only 3.4% annual cash flow growth over the next five years.
The 0.9% dividend yield and 11.6% net margin leave limited room to reward shareholders if housing demand weakens further.
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Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where PHM's valuation models land
Price
$121.19
Model fair value
$162
Model range
$131 to $180
Fair value $162
Price $121
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores