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TNXP

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. Common Stock (TNXP) fair value

Healthcare · Biotechnology · NASDAQ · United States
$5.17+0.78%
Market cap $89MNext earnings 2026-11-09Updated Oct 23, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 37% below our fair value
Price
$5.17
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $8.16
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Net cash floor.
ACCE opinionTonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. Common Stock (TNXP)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$5.90
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $5.17 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Net cash floor and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
40
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
3 covering
1-year return
-72.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Tonix Pharmaceuticals develops small-molecule and biologic therapeutics, with its commercial focus on TNX-102 SL, a sublingual cyclobenzaprine formulation approved for fibromyalgia, and a pipeline spanning pain, neuropsychiatry and infectious disease. The 83.8% gross margin shows the product economics are real, but the operating margin of -314.1% and ROE of -81.8% show a business still spending far ahead of its revenue. Revenue growth of 577.9% reflects a very small base ramping, so the number says more about launch timing than about scale. The stock is sub-$200 million in market cap, carries no index membership, and scores 40/100 on our framework, so this is a speculative launch-stage story rather than a cash-generating one. It merits a deeper look only if the fibromyalgia launch is tracking toward a prescription trajectory that can close the gap to breakeven before the balance sheet forces dilution.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • severe
    Heavy cash burn
    Free cash flow is -$103.2M against a $93M market cap, so the company burns more than its entire equity value in a year. Operating margin is -314.1%.
  • high
    Extreme short interest
    Short interest stands at 17.2% of float, a high level that signals strong bearish conviction among informed traders and can amplify volatility.
  • moderate
    Profitability deeply negative
    ROE is -81.8% and the composite ACCE score is 40/100 with a margin score of 17, unchanged over 90 days, showing no improvement in profitability.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 577.9% year over year, and analysts have averaged 35.1% annual growth over five years.
  • Debt to equity is only 0.01, so the balance sheet carries very little borrowing.
Why it could disappoint
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative $103M, so the business is burning cash.
  • Return on equity is -81.8% and return on invested capital is -41.3%, so shareholder capital is shrinking.
  • The diluted share count rose 1055.9% in the last fiscal year, heavily diluting existing holders.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 9, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where TNXP's valuation models land
Price
$5.17
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $8.16
Model
Fair value
Upside
Net cash floor
Sales comps
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

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  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish100% buy · 3 covering analysts
● Strong buy 3● Buy 0● Hold 0● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

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Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-14.4%
1 month
-49.5%
3 months
-47.7%
6 months
-59.0%
YTD
-66.9%
1 year
-72.2%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$5.90first publication$6.13

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth64Value33Quality47Momentum17Total40
Valuation
Trailing P/E
no data
Forward P/E
-0.7x
PEG
no data
P/B
0.79x
EV / Revenue
0.0x
Book value/sh
$13.24
Enterprise value
$1M
Profitability
ROE
-81.8%
FCF yield
-116.40%
ROIC
-41.3%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.01
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.79

Price

-73.5% · 1Y

Ask anything about TNXP

Answered from Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -82%-82%high 20%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 0.7%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
TNXP Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. Common Stock$5.17----81.8%4740
ZEAL.CO Zealand Pharma A/Skr 226.00--5.8x16.3%9051
BIOA-B.ST BioArctic AB (publ)kr 300.00kr 25916% above254.2x5.2%6238
BAVA.CO Bavarian Nordic A/Skr 247.40kr 2574% below12.7x12.2%8686
CAMX.ST Camurus AB (publ)kr 666.00kr 325105% above58.8x15.9%9055
BIOCON.NS Biocon Limited₹323.50--97.7x-6752
KRYS Krystal Biotech Inc. Common Stock$311.50$153104% above40.1x20.1%9571

Sector report card

Where TNXP ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 22, 2026
    Tonix Pharmaceuticals Announces Second Major Managed Medicare Payer Agreement for TONMYA®
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 8, 2026
    Tonix Pharmaceuticals Promotes Thomas Englese, MBA, to Chief Commercial Officer
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 2, 2026
    Tonix Pharmaceuticals to Participate in Cantor’s 2026 Global Healthcare Conference
12 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 15
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
Oct 2
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 22
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-22
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR