3 models fit TransMedics Group Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionTransMedics Group Inc. Common Stock (TMDX)
Fair value (3 models)
$64.14
ACCE price target
$80.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CEST; previously $102 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 CEST.
Price used: $70.74 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
10.3% above
-9.3% to fair value
ACCE score
48
out of 100
Analysts
69% buy
13 covering
P/E
18.3x
forward 31.4x
1-year return
-45.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
TransMedics Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
TransMedics makes the OCS organ perfusion system, a portable device that keeps donor hearts, lungs and livers functioning outside the body during transport, along with the aviation-based logistics network it runs to move organs. The moat is the combination of a proprietary, hard-to-replicate device and a dedicated flight fleet, which together give it control over a procedure that most transplant centers cannot yet match. Revenue growth of 20.7% and a 58.7% gross margin show that the franchise is scaling, and the operating margin of 12.5% shows that the spending needed to expand the network is still eating most of the gross profit. The main near-term driver is adoption of the next-generation heart and lung platforms and wider use of the OCS in the U.S. and abroad, with each new transplant center and procedure adding volume to a fixed-cost logistics base. The stock trades at 37.3 times forward earnings against 20.5 times trailing, so the market is pricing in a meaningful step-up in profitability that has not yet appeared in reported numbers; whether that step-up arrives is the question a deeper look needs to answer. Its 47/100 score and absence from any index suggest the name is still under-followed and under-owned, which may be an opportunity or a sign of persistent doubts about execution.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 20.7% YoY but earnings fell 55.8%, and operating margin of 12.5% sits well below the 58.7% gross margin, pointing to heavy operating costs eating the top line.
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 38.4% of float, a very elevated level that signals strong bearish conviction among sophisticated traders and raises squeeze or drawdown risk.
moderate
Insider selling without buying
Insiders disclosed $4.12M in sales across the last 10 filings with zero purchases, a one-directional pattern worth noting alongside the 3.6% insider ownership.
moderate
Valuation stretched on forward earnings
Forward P/E of 31.8 versus trailing 18.5 implies analysts expect earnings to fall further, and the stock trades 10.3% above the model fair value of $64.14.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
TransMedics generated $134M of free cash flow over the last twelve months, and its net margin reached 22.7%.
Revenue has compounded at an average of 88.2% a year over five years, though growth slowed to 20.7% most recently.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 10.3% above the model fair value of $64.14, so the consensus models do not support today's price.
The latest earnings per share missed expectations by 12.0%, coming in at 0.44 against 0.50 expected.
The diluted share count rose 15.1% last fiscal year, which dilutes existing shareholders' claim on future earnings.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where TMDX's valuation models land
Price
$70.74
Model fair value
$64.14
Model range
$36.73 to $117
Fair value $64.14
Price $70.74
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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