4 models fit Timken Company (The) Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTimken Company (The) Common Stock (TKR)
Fair value (4 models)
$94.94
ACCE price target
$119
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $112 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $109 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
15.2% above
-13.2% to fair value
ACCE score
53
out of 100
Analysts
58% buy
12 covering
P/E
29.4x
forward 15.4x
1-year return
+40.7%
Dividend yield
1.23%
Timken Company (The) Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Timken makes tapered and spherical roller bearings, precision mechanical power transmission components, and the industrial chain and couplings that go into heavy equipment, rail, wind, and mining. Its moat is the metallurgy and engineering behind bearing life under load, which lets it sell into long-cycle replacement markets where specification is sticky. Revenue growth of 7.5% and a 20.5% operating margin show the business is still converting volume into profit, though an 8.5% ROE says the balance sheet is carrying a lot of capital for the return. The reason it is on the desk is the forward multiple: 15.4 times forward earnings against 30.6 trailing points to earnings recovering faster than the headline growth suggests, and the index membership in ACCE Humanoid Actuators ties it to the actuator and motion-component demand that robotics builders are now buying. The score of 55 out of 100 is middling, so the question for a deeper look is whether the forward earnings step-up is real and whether the robotics exposure is revenue or just narrative.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsed year over year
Earnings are down 63.4% YoY while revenue grew 7.5%, so margins have been squeezed hard. The trailing P/E of 30.5 looks expensive against that fall in profit.
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
The ACCE score fell 12 points, from 67 to 55, over 90 days. Growth scores lowest at 28, which lines up with the earnings decline.
moderate
Short interest elevated
Short interest sits at 7.3% of float, a meaningful bet against the stock. Insider buying and selling both show zero in the last ten disclosed filings, so there is no insider signal either way.
moderate
Shares trade above model fair value
The price of $109.33 sits 15.2% above the model fair value of $94.94. It is also 8.1% below the ACCE price target of $119.00, so the two valuation references point different ways.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-19 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy at 58% (7 of 12), and their mean price target sits well above the share price.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 12.3% in the latest quarter, at 1.83 against 1.63 expected.
Free cash flow over the last 12 months reached $406M, and the share count fell 0.7% last fiscal year.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 15.2% above the model fair value of $94.94, and the consensus of valuation models points lower.
At a trailing P/E of 30.5x against a forward P/E of 15.4x, earnings look far less certain than the forecast suggests.
Return on invested capital of 4.4% is thin, and net margin of 5.4% leaves little room for error in a cyclical industrial business.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where TKR's valuation models land
Price
$109.33
Model fair value
$94.94
Model range
$60.42 to $148
Fair value $94.94
Price $109
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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