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TIMA.DE

ZEAL Network SE (TIMA.DE) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling · XETRA · Germany
€39.60-0.50%
Market cap €836MNext earnings 2025-08-06Updated Oct 22, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 53% above our fair value
Price
€39.60
Model fair valueConfidence: good
€25.82
Model range
€22.07 to €29.16
Fair value €25.82
Price €39.60
4 models fit ZEAL Network SE and they agree: 4 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionZEAL Network SE (TIMA.DE)
Fair value (4 models)
€25.82
ACCE price target
€44.50
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: €39.60 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
53.4% above
-34.8% to fair value
ACCE score
68
out of 100
P/E
19.0x
forward 16.0x
1-year return
-18.2%
Dividend yield
3.56%

ZEAL Network SE in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

ZEAL Network SE runs Germany's Zeal online sports betting and casino platform, where it earns revenue as an affiliate and operator-facing partner, and the Zeal brand's growth has been driven by the regulated German market opening up under the 2021 state treaty. Its advantage is a high-margin, asset-light model: a 73.7% gross margin and 31.4% operating margin mean most incremental revenue drops through, which is why a 34.0% revenue growth rate has translated into a 20.6% ROE rather than eroding returns. The near-term driver to test is how much of the market-opening tailwind is still ahead versus already in the numbers, and whether licence and regulatory changes in Germany could compress the economics. At 19.1 times trailing and 16.1 times forward earnings, the stock is priced for continued growth without being expensive for a business compounding at this rate, so the question for a deeper look is durability of growth and regulatory risk rather than valuation alone.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Valuation above model fair value
    Shares trade 53.4% above the model fair value of €25.82, so the price already assumes growth continues well past the models' inputs.
  • moderate
    Heavy insider ownership
    Insiders hold 44.8% of the shares, which concentrates control and limits free float, so price moves can be sharper on thin volume.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 34.0% year over year, well ahead of its 20.2% average annual pace over five years.
  • The company keeps 18.3% of revenue as net profit and earns a 20.6% return on equity.
  • Free cash flow yields 7.3% at the current price, and the share count fell 2.4% last year.
Why it could disappoint
  • The shares trade 53.4% above the model fair value of €25.82, and all four valuation models sit below the price.
  • Return on invested capital is only 10.7%, a modest return on the capital the business consumes.
  • At the current price, the market implies cash flow growth of 6.4% a year forever, using a 5.1% risk-free rate.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where TIMA.DE's valuation models land
Price
€39.60
Model fair value
€25.82
Model range
€22.07 to €29.16
Fair value €25.82
Price €39.60
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

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  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

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The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

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Company insiders
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Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Recent performance

1 week
-1.2%
1 month
-4.8%
3 months
-10.6%
6 months
-18.5%
YTD
-24.7%
1 year
-18.2%

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target€44.50first publication€39.80
22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CESTFair value€25.82first publication€39.40
22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication€39.40

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

This security trades in EUR. Exchange-rate movements can increase or reduce the result in your own currency.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth100Value67Quality88Momentum17Total68
Valuation
Trailing P/E
19.0x
Forward P/E
16.0x
PEG
0.49
P/B
3.96x
EV / Revenue
3.5x
Book value/sh
€10.49
Enterprise value
€834M
Profitability
ROE
20.6%
FCF yield
7.29%
ROIC
10.7%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.38
Dividend yield
3.56%
Beta
0.28

Price

-19.3% · 1Y

Ask anything about TIMA.DE

Answered from ZEAL Network SE fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 33% of peers
low 9.4x19.0xhigh 124.3x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 0%21%high 21%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%3.6%high 9.5%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
TIMA.DE ZEAL Network SE€39.60€2653% above19.0x20.6%8868
ACEL Accel Entertainment Inc. $11.00$835% above16.1x20.5%5665
BETS-B.ST Betsson AB (publ)kr 99.05kr 20652% below11.0x16.9%7654
TAH.AX Tabcorp Holdings LimitedA$0.86A$097% above42.8x3.7%5149
PTEC.L Playtech plc£3.73--124.3x0.4%5557
BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025. Ordinary Shares$9.48$1432% below9.4x15.2%5848
RNK.L The Rank Group Plc£0.79£133% below13.1x7.9%6050

Sector report card

Where TIMA.DE ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…