4 models fit Accel Entertainment Inc. and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionAccel Entertainment Inc. (ACEL)
Fair value (4 models)
$8.17
ACCE price target
$11.50
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $9.36 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $11.00 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
34.7% above
-25.8% to fair value
ACCE score
65
out of 100
Analysts
71% buy
7 covering
P/E
16.1x
forward 16.1x
1-year return
+4.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Accel Entertainment Inc. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Accel Entertainment operates a large route-based network of gaming terminals in bars, taverns and truck stops, mainly across Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee, and it is one of the few listed operators with a footprint built around that neighbourhood format. Revenue is growing at 9.6% and return on equity sits at 20.5%, while the stock trades at 16.8 times trailing earnings and 16.1 times forward, a modest multiple for a business with those returns. Operating margin of 9.4% against a 31.4% gross margin leaves little room for error, so the thesis depends on whether terminal count and per-unit revenue keep rising faster than route costs. At $898M market cap, with no index membership, the name is small enough that a deeper look is worth the time, starting with the state-by-state regulatory calendar and terminal placement data.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Leverage stretched
Debt/Equity of 2.33 leaves little room for error in a cyclical gaming business. Free cash flow of $62M is the main cushion against that debt load.
moderate
Thin net margin
Operating margin of 9.4% narrows to a net margin of 4.1%, so most operating profit is absorbed before it reaches shareholders. Earnings growth of 87.5% is off a low base.
moderate
Price above model fair value
The price trades 34.7% above the model fair value of $8.17, while sitting 4.3% below the ACCE price target of $11.50. The two gaps point in different directions, so the valuation case rests on which anchor you trust.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target sits 44.8% above the share price, and 71% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Trailing free cash flow of $62M gives a 7.0% free cash flow yield, while the forward P/E of 10.0x sits well below the sector median of 17.8x.
Revenue grew 9.6% over the past year and return on equity reached 20.5%, showing the business still earns good returns on shareholders' money.
Why it could disappoint
The share price is 34.7% above the model fair value of $8.17, so the stock already looks expensive on the four valuation models.
Debt to equity of 2.33 is high, and return on invested capital of 4.7% is thin for a business carrying that much borrowing.
The latest quarter's earnings per share missed expectations by 16.7%, and the diluted share count rose 1.6% last year, eroding shareholder value.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ACEL's valuation models land
Price
$11.00
Model fair value
$8.17
Model range
$4.15 to $16.45
Fair value $8.17
Price $11.00
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores