5 models fit Stanley Black & Decker Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 2 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver72
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionStanley Black & Decker Inc. Common Stock (SWK)
Fair value (5 models)
$56.72
ACCE price target
$89.20
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST; previously $57.34 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST.
Price used: $99.24 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
75.0% above
-42.8% to fair value
ACCE score
71
out of 100
Analysts
27% buy
15 covering
P/E
24.3x
forward 15.7x
1-year return
+41.0%
Dividend yield
3.40%
Stanley Black & Decker Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Stanley Black & Decker makes hand tools, power tools, outdoor equipment such as lawn mowers and trimmers, and Craftsman, DeWalt, and Stanley-branded products sold through big-box retailers and professional trade channels. Its advantage is brand scale across three recognizable names and a distribution footprint that is hard for smaller competitors to match, which supports a 32.2% gross margin. Near-term, the story depends on margin recovery rather than top-line growth, since revenue is roughly flat at 0.4% and operating margin sits at 8.4%, leaving room for restructuring and pricing to lift earnings. At 14.7x forward earnings against 22.6x trailing, the market is pricing in a meaningful earnings rebound, which makes the name worth a closer look if you believe that margin expansion is achievable. The weak 6.9% ROE and absence from major indices are the reasons to be skeptical, and the thesis hinges on whether the forward estimates hold.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Flat revenue growth
Revenue grew only 0.4% year over year and compounded at 0.8% over five years, so the earnings jump of 247.8% rests on a thin top line and recovering margins rather than demand.
high
Price well above model fair value
The stock trades 75.0% above the model fair value of $56.72, and sits 11.3% above the ACCE price target of $89.20, leaving little margin for error.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 5.5%, meaning some investors are betting on further weakness despite the recent score improvement.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-16 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Forward earnings multiple of 14.5x sits well below the sector median of 23.8x, a gap that leaves room for re-rating.
Latest quarter beat expected earnings per share by 30.8%, with 1.57 reported against 1.20 expected.
Free cash flow of $688M over the last twelve months gives a 4.9% yield, and the dividend yields 3.6%.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital of 2.2% is thin, so the business earns little on the capital it deploys.
Revenue grew just 0.4% year over year, slower than the 0.8% five-year average pace.
The stock trades 75.0% above the model fair value of $56.72, and all five valuation models sit below the share price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SWK's valuation models land
Price
$99.24
Model fair value
$56.72
Model range
$23.87 to $131
Fair value $56.72
Price $99.24
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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