Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM-B.SN) fair value

ACCE thesis

Sociedad Química y Minera makes lithium carbonate and hydroxide, potassium nutrients (SOP fertilizers, iodine and specialty plant nutrition) out of brine pumped from the Atacama salt flat, which gives it some of the lowest-cost lithium production in the world. The moat is the resource itself: Chilean brine concessions, long-dated production rights and a cost curve that sits well below most hard-rock and newer brine competitors. Lithium pricing has been recovering from its trough, and the company's 136.7% revenue growth in the latest reported period, alongside a 48.8% operating margin, shows how much operating leverage a price rebound can deliver on a cost base this low. The stock trades at 13.2 times trailing earnings but 42.1 times forward earnings, a gap that says the market expects earnings to fall sharply as prices normalize, so the investment case rests on whether the forward estimates or the trailing numbers prove more representative. That gap, not the headline growth rate, is what makes the name worth a closer look.