Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionLyondellBasell Industries NV Ordinary Shares Class A (Netherlands) (LYB)
Fair value (3 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$60.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $66.45 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
63
out of 100
Analysts
30% buy
20 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 9.1x
1-year return
+42.0%
Dividend yield
6.51%
LyondellBasell Industries NV Ordinary Shares Class A (Netherlands) in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
LyondellBasell makes polyethylene, polypropylene, propylene oxide, and refined fuels, and it runs a large petrochemical and refining footprint centred on Texas and Houston. Its structural edge is scale in commodity olefins and polymers, which keeps it on the cost curve even when margins are cyclical. The near-term question is whether the trough in petrochemical spreads is ending, since the reported 19.8% revenue growth and 17.9% operating margin sit alongside a -2.3% ROE, so earnings recovery is not yet visible in returns. At 9.6x forward earnings on a $19.2B market cap, the stock is priced for a cyclical rebound rather than a steady compounder, which makes it worth a deeper look if you have a view on the petrochemical cycle and polymer demand. The thesis depends on spreads and volumes that the data provided here does not fully capture, so this name needs bottom-up work on feedstock costs and cracker utilisation before it earns a position.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative ROE and net margin
ROE of -2.3% and net margin of -1.1% signal the company is destroying shareholder value despite positive operating margin of 17.9%. Earnings growth of 396% appears to reflect recovery from a loss, not sustainable profitability.
high
Elevated leverage with weak equity returns
Debt/Equity of 1.33 is substantial for a cyclical chemicals business. Combined with negative ROE, debt service becomes a material risk if margins compress or volumes decline.
moderate
Long-term revenue decline
5-year revenue CAGR of -15.8% shows structural headwinds despite recent +19.8% YoY growth. Recent strength may be cyclical recovery rather than trend reversal.
moderate
Quality score collapse
ACCE Quality subscore is 35/100, the weakest component. Score jumped 26 points in 90 days, suggesting recent volatility in reported metrics rather than stable improvement.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue jumped 19.8% year over year, and earnings beat expectations by 20.8%, suggesting cyclical recovery is underway.
At 9.7x forward P/E with a 6.3% free cash flow yield, the stock trades at a steep discount to historical norms.
Analysts see 13.2% upside to their mean price target, and the company is shrinking share count by 1.2% annually.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue has fallen 15.8% per year over five years, and the company is currently unprofitable with negative 1.1% net margin.
Return on equity of negative 2.3% and return on invested capital of negative 2.6% show the business is destroying shareholder value.
Debt to equity of 1.33 leaves little room to weather a downturn, especially if the polyethylene cycle weakens again.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 30, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where LYB's valuation models land
Price
$66.45
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $120
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
LyondellBasell's ACCE composite score fell from 50 to 30. Here's what the underlying data suggests is driving the move for $LYB.
2026-06-11
Recommendation history, last 12 months
Date
Type
New
Previous
Price
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$91.58
$92.62
$58.14
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$92.62
$95.31
$58.14
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
ACCE price target
$60.00
first publication
$59.97
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$95.31
$97.22
$61.93
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$97.22
$98.77
$63.69
13 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$98.77
$100
$63.69
6 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$100
$87.49
$63.52
3 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$87.49
$86.37
$65.17
30 Aug 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$86.37
$26.66
$63.67
20 Aug 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$26.66
$21.59
$65.23
Price
+39.6% · 1Y
Ask anything about LYB
Answered from LyondellBasell Industries NV Ordinary Shares Class A (Netherlands) fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.
This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0x0.0xhigh 90.2x
ROEbetter than 20% of peers
low -6%-2%high 23%
Div yieldbetter than 100% of peers
low 0.1%6.5%high 6.5%
Peers
Prices Oct 23, 2026
Company
Price
Fair value
vs fair value
P/E
ROE
Quality
Score
LYBLyondellBasell Industries NV Ordinary Shares Class A (Netherlands)