3 models fit Suburban Propane Partners L.P. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver64
Valued as a utility: Dividend discount, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionSuburban Propane Partners L.P. Common Stock (SPH)
Fair value (3 models)
$24.28
ACCE price target
$17.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $24.61 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: $17.73 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
27.0% below
+37.0% to fair value
ACCE score
49
out of 100
Analysts
50% buy
2 covering
P/E
9.2x
forward 8.5x
1-year return
-6.8%
Dividend yield
7.90%
Suburban Propane Partners L.P. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Suburban Propane distributes propane, fuel oil and refined fuels to residential, commercial and industrial customers across the eastern and western US, and runs a sizeable Refined Fuels and Propane business alongside its Midstream and Energy Services arms. The case for a closer look rests on the trailing numbers: a trailing P/E of 8.9 against a forward P/E of 16.6 signals that earnings are expected to fall, so the valuation depends heavily on whether the forward estimates hold. Revenue growth of 0.5% and an operating margin of 0.8% describe a business with thin pricing power and little operating leverage, with a return on equity of 19.2% reflecting a small equity base rather than strong economics. The score of 47/100 and absence from any index argue for caution, and the first question is whether the earnings decline in the forward estimates is cyclical weather exposure or something structural in the propane customer base.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy leverage
Debt/Equity of 2.22 is high for a propane distributor with flat revenue (+0.5% YoY) and earnings down 1.9%, leaving little cushion if cash flow weakens.
moderate
Thin operating margin
Operating margin of +0.8% against a net margin of +9.4% suggests returns depend heavily on non-operating items or financing structure, which deserves a closer look at the filings.
moderate
Score slipped over 90 days
ACCE Score fell from 54 to 49 over 90 days, with the Growth component at 19/100, pointing to weakening fundamentals rather than a stable profile.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Trailing free cash flow of $114M backs a 7.6% dividend yield, and the stock trades on a 9.8% free cash flow yield.
Shares trade at 8.4x forward earnings, far below the sector median of 19.8x, which leaves room for a rerating.
Consensus model fair value sits at $24.28, and the price implies only 1.6% yearly cash flow growth over five years.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue grew just 0.5% year over year, far below the 5.3% five-year average, showing little organic growth to offset declining propane demand.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 12, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SPH's valuation models land
Price
$17.73
Model fair value
$24.28
Model range
$15.69 to $38.09
Fair value $24.28
Price $17.73
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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