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NWN

Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock (NWN) fair value

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas · NYSE · United States
$49.87-0.12%
Market cap $2.1BNext earnings 2026-11-05Updated Oct 17, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 17% below our fair value
Price
$49.87
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$60.15
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a utility: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionNorthwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock (NWN)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$51.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $49.87 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
52
out of 100
Analysts
50% buy
6 covering
P/E
16.6x
forward 15.2x
1-year return
+5.4%
Dividend yield
3.94%

Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Northwest Natural Holding runs a regulated gas utility in Oregon and Southwest Washington, distributing natural gas to roughly two million people through its Northwest Natural Gas Company subsidiary, with a smaller asset-based business in gas storage and pipeline services. Its moat is the rate base it earns a regulated return on, which makes earnings far more predictable than most of the market's cyclical names, though the 8.3% ROE shows how thinly that return is spread across a $2.0B equity base. The near-term driver is rate case outcomes and capital spending on system safety and modernization, which expand the rate base over time. What makes it worth a look now is the valuation: at 16.0x trailing and 14.5x forward earnings, the stock is priced against revenue growth of only 3.1% and a 13.6% operating margin, so the case rests on whether regulators allow returns that lift ROE above today's level. The composite score of 49/100 and absence from any major index mean the name is under-owned, which can cut both ways.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Negative free cash flow
    Free cash flow is $-197.8M against a $2.1B market cap, so capex is being funded with debt and equity rather than operations. Dividend coverage depends on that gap closing.
  • moderate
    Elevated leverage
    Debt/Equity of 1.87 is high for the sector, which raises the sensitivity of earnings and the balance sheet to rising borrowing costs and regulatory decisions on rate recovery.
  • moderate
    Slowing top-line growth
    Revenue grew 3.1% year over year against a 10.8% five-year CAGR, and ROE of 8.3% offers a thin return on the equity base.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-19 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Analysts' mean price target of $57.40 sits 19.7% above the current $49.87 share price.
  • The stock trades at 14.5x forward earnings, below the sector median of 19.5x.
  • The dividend yield of 4.1% gives income while investors wait for the business to recover.
Why it could disappoint
  • Free cash flow over the last 12 months was negative $198M, so the business is spending more cash than it brings in.
  • Debt is 1.87 times equity, and the share count rose 5.4% last year, diluting existing holders.
  • Return on invested capital of 2.2% is weak, and the shares trade with a free cash flow yield of negative 9.6%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where NWN's valuation models land
Price
$49.87
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$60.15
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed50% buy · 6 covering analysts
● Strong buy 3● Buy 0● Hold 3● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.8%
1 month
+5.6%
3 months
-3.5%
6 months
-6.5%
YTD
+6.7%
1 year
+5.4%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$43.17$54.37$48.46
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$51.00first publication$47.73
9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$54.37$53.31$47.78
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$53.31$54.60$47.04
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$54.60$55.41$48.66
1 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$55.41$54.76$49.50
29 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$54.76$53.99$49.56
24 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$53.99$54.74$49.98
21 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$54.74$48.72$50.85
19 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$48.72$47.16$50.57

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth40Value66Quality53Momentum47Total52
Valuation
Trailing P/E
16.6x
Forward P/E
15.2x
PEG
2.40
P/B
1.24x
EV / Revenue
3.4x
Book value/sh
$37.04
Enterprise value
$4.2B
Profitability
ROE
8.3%
FCF yield
-9.42%
ROIC
2.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.87
Dividend yield
3.94%
Beta
0.39

Price

+4.4% · 1Y

Ask anything about NWN

Answered from Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 7.5x16.6xhigh 60.4x
ROEbetter than 50% of peers
low 4%8%high 19%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%3.9%high 8.6%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock$49.87--16.6x8.3%5352
PROMIGAS.CL PromigasCOP 6200.00--7.5x16.1%6143
CTRI Centuri Holdings Inc. Common Stock$19.34$1528% above60.4x4.0%2541
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation Common Stock$134.28$11913% above21.4x9.5%6956
0384.HK China Gas Holdings LimitedHK$4.96HK$623% below9.9x5.6%3939
SPH Suburban Propane Partners L.P. Common Stock$17.73$2427% below9.2x19.2%5049
MDU MDU Resources Group Inc. Common Stock (Holding Company)$19.22$1174% above20.4x6.9%5452

Sector report card

Where NWN ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 9, 2026
    NW Natural Holdings Schedules Earnings Release and Conference Call for Thursday, Nov. 5
  • Business Wire•Oct 8, 2026
    NW Natural Holdings Increases Dividend for 71st Consecutive Year
  • Business Wire•Sep 23, 2026
    SiEnergy Reaches Settlement in Texas General Rate Case
2 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 23
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-22
View on SEC →
Sep 21
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-18
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR