Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
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Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionSNDL Inc. Common Shares (SNDL)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$1.30
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $1.29 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
31
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
2 covering
1-year return
-41.9%
Dividend yield
0.00%
SNDL Inc. Common Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
SNDL is a Canadian company that sells cannabis, and runs liquor retail stores and a lending business. Retail and investments reduce reliance on cannabis alone. The driver is cannabis market share and cost control. Revenue fell 3.7%, the gross margin is 26.2% and the operating margin -2.3%, so the 97.1x forward multiple shows how little profit is expected.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Profitability collapse and negative returns
ROE -2.0%, operating margin -2.3%, net margin -2.3%. Company is unprofitable despite positive gross margin of 26.2%.
high
Revenue decline with score deterioration
Revenue down 3.7% YoY. ACCE score fell 5 points in 90 days (32 to 27), signalling fundamental deterioration across quality and momentum metrics.
moderate
Valuation disconnect and earnings uncertainty
Forward P/E 40.7 on negative current earnings and zero YoY earnings growth. EV/EBITDA -30.5 indicates negative EBITDA. Fair value $1.30 vs price $1.22 offers minimal margin of safety.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow yield of 8.2% offers attractive cash return relative to current share price of $1.22.
Five-year revenue growth averaged 9.9% annually, showing the business can expand despite near-term headwinds.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue contracted 3.7% year over year while net margin sits at negative 2.3%, destroying shareholder value.
Forward P/E of 40.7x is expensive for a company generating negative ROE of negative 2.0% and negative ROIC of negative 1.1%.
Share count fell only 2.3% last year despite years of M&A, signaling dilution from past equity-funded deals limits per-share gains.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SNDL's valuation models land
Price
$1.29
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$1.69
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores