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AGCC

Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd Class A Ordinary Shares (AGCC) fair value

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · NASDAQ · United States
$15.10+1.63%
Market cap $636MUpdated Oct 24, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 2814% above our fair value
Price
$15.10
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $0.52
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a growth company: EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionAgencia Comercial Spirits Ltd Class A Ordinary Shares (AGCC)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$7.68
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $15.10 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
46
out of 100
P/E
371.4x
forward 0.0x
1-year return
+276.6%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd Class A Ordinary Shares in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Agencia Comercial Spirits sells spirits under its own labels, and the investable question is whether its 274% revenue growth reflects durable distribution gains or a small base flattering the percentage. A 6.3% operating margin on a 30.4% gross margin is thin for a branded spirits business, and the 377x trailing P/E on a $646M market cap says the market is paying for the growth story rather than current earnings. The company is not in any major index, which limits passive demand and may keep the shares less liquid than the market cap suggests. ROE of 10.4% is respectable, so the balance sheet is not the obvious problem; the open issue is whether margins widen as volume scales. This is worth a deeper look only to test that margin trajectory and the sustainability of the top-line run rate, with a score of 45/100 reflecting that the case is unproven.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • severe
    Negative free cash flow
    Free cash flow was $-7,498,413 against a $685M market cap, with debt/equity at 1.27. The business is burning cash while carrying leverage.
  • high
    Earnings falling despite revenue surge
    Revenue grew 274.1% year over year while earnings fell 64.0%. Trailing P/E of 400.3 leaves little margin for error if profits do not recover.
  • high
    Price far above ACCE target
    The stock trades 96.6% above the ACCE price target of $7.68. Price is $15.10.
  • high
    Score collapse over 90 days
    The ACCE score fell 16 points, from 57 to 41, over 90 days. Value sub-score sits at 10/100.
  • moderate
    Heavy insider concentration
    Insiders hold 79.8% of shares while institutions hold just 0.1%. Thin outside ownership limits independent scrutiny and liquidity.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2025-12-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 274.1% year over year in the latest 10-K, a pace few companies of this size can match.
  • Revenue has compounded at an average of 164.3% a year over five years, showing sustained rather than one-off expansion.
  • The company kept a 9.8% net margin and a 10.4% return on equity while growing this fast.
Why it could disappoint
  • Free cash flow was negative $7M over the last twelve months, so the rapid growth is not yet generating cash.
  • At $16.01 the shares trade on a trailing P/E of 400.3x, leaving little room for any earnings disappointment.
  • The stock sits 96.6% above the ACCE price target of $7.68, and debt to equity is 1.27.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where AGCC's valuation models land
Price
$15.10
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $0.52
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

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  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-5.7%
1 month
+6.3%
3 months
+1.3%
6 months
-31.5%
YTD
+54.7%
1 year
+276.6%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$7.68first publication$15.36
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.54$0.55$15.00
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.55$0.54$14.50
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.54$0.56$15.00
23 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.56$0.56$13.60
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.56$0.55$13.16
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.55$0.54$13.37
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.54$0.53$13.70
10 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.53$0.55$13.67
22 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.55$0.54$14.55

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth64Value10Quality50Momentum61Total46
Valuation
Trailing P/E
371.4x
Forward P/E
0.0x
PEG
no data
P/B
32.33x
EV / Revenue
50.9x
Book value/sh
$0.50
Enterprise value
$316M
Profitability
ROE
10.4%
FCF yield
-1.18%
ROIC
2.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.29
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
no data

Price

+237.1% · 1Y

Ask anything about AGCC

Answered from Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd Class A Ordinary Shares fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0x371.4xhigh 371.4x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low -34%10%high 10%
Div yieldbetter than 33% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 5.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
AGCC Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd Class A Ordinary Shares$15.10--371.4x10.4%5046
CONCHATORO.SN Vina Concha ToCLP 870.00--10.3x7.6%5948
SBT.PA Oeneo SA€8.72€728% above20.8x8.4%6345
LPE.PA Laurent-Perrier S.A.€76.60€11835% below9.1x7.7%7060
MGPI MGP Ingredients Inc.$15.73$1317% above--33.8%4435
MBWS.PA Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA€2.74€263% above34.3x3.9%4640
SNDL SNDL Inc. Common Shares$1.29----2.0%3931

Sector report card

Where AGCC ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 16, 2026
    Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd Announces Long-Term AI Computing Capacity Arrangement
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 14, 2026
    Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd Announces Conditional Land Acquisition for AI Computing Infrastructure in Indonesia
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 1, 2026
    AGENCIA COMERCIAL SPIRITS LTD ISSUES LETTERS OF AWARD FOR MEP EQUIPMENT SUPPLY AND INSTALLATION FOR PHASE 1A OF INDONESIA DATA CENTER
4 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
20 filings
October 2026
Oct 16
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
Oct 14
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-10-14
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 1
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-01
View on SEC →
17 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR