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SMFG
ACCE-researched

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc Unsponsored American Depositary Shares (Japan) (SMFG) fair value

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified · NYSE · United States
$23.80-1.20%
Market cap $151.1BNext earnings 2026-11-13Updated Oct 18, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 39% above our fair value
Price
$23.80
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$17.07
Model range
$11.82 to $24.43
Fair value $17.07
Price $23.80
2 models fit Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc Unsponsored American Depositary Shares (Japan) and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze43
Valued as a bank: Residual income, P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionSumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc Unsponsored American Depositary Shares (Japan) (SMFG)
Fair value (2 models)
$17.07
ACCE price target
$22.80
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $18.80 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $25.50 since 17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $23.80 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Graham number and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
39.4% above
-28.3% to fair value
ACCE score
72
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
1 covering
P/E
13.9x
forward 15.2x
1-year return
+49.6%
Dividend yield
2.46%

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc Unsponsored American Depositary Shares (Japan) in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group operates Japan's second-largest banking franchise, with retail deposits, corporate lending, investment banking, and a substantial securities and asset management business. The bank benefits from Japan's structural shift toward higher interest rates after two decades of near-zero policy rates, which expands net interest margins on its massive deposit base. Near-term earnings growth is driven by the Bank of Japan's ongoing rate normalization, which began in 2024 and is expected to continue through 2025. The forward PE of 61x appears distorted by temporary factors, but the trailing 14.5x multiple on a bank generating 8.6% ROE and 40.9% operating margins reflects modest valuation relative to the earnings inflection from rate increases. At current rates, SMFG trades below most developed-market peers despite having a cleaner deposit franchise and less exposure to the rate-sensitive mortgage portfolio risks that constrain U.S. bank valuations.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Valuation metric collapse
    Forward P/E jumped to 61.3 from implied ~14.5 current, signalling market expects sharp earnings decline. QoQ growth of -36.5% confirms deceleration.
  • moderate
    ACCE score deterioration
    Score fell 10 points to 71 in 90 days. Valuation component (V:55) and Quality (Q:55) are weak, offsetting strong Growth and Momentum scores.
  • moderate
    ROE below cost of capital
    ROE of 8.6% is low for a large bank and likely below SMFG's weighted average cost of capital, raising questions on capital efficiency.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 24.8% year over year with a strong 27.8% net margin, demonstrating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • The stock trades at 14.5x trailing P/E while generating 29.4% free cash flow yield, suggesting deep undervaluation.
Why it could disappoint
  • Forward P/E of 61.3x versus trailing 14.5x signals either inflated trailing earnings or analyst estimate errors, creating visibility risk.
  • Diluted share count surged 63.9% last fiscal year, heavily diluting existing shareholders despite revenue growth.
  • ROE of 8.6% and ROIC of 2.8% fall well short of cost of capital, indicating value destruction despite high margins.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 13, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where SMFG's valuation models land
Price
$23.80
Model fair value
$17.07
Model range
$11.82 to $24.43
Fair value $17.07
Price $23.80
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish100% buy · 1 covering analyst
● Strong buy 1● Buy 0● Hold 0● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-3.8%
1 month
-7.9%
3 months
-9.1%
6 months
+17.8%
YTD
+23.1%
1 year
+49.6%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$24.75
18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTFair value$17.07$18.80$24.75
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$22.80$25.50$24.75
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$18.80$16.88$25.03
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$16.88$15.45$25.31
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$15.45$15.94$4193
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$15.94$15.42$4193
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$25.50first publication$26.29
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$15.42$15.94$4222
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$15.94$16.29$4204

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth88Value47Quality67Momentum84Total72
Valuation
Trailing P/E
13.9x
Forward P/E
15.2x
PEG
2.23
P/B
1.65x
EV / Revenue
5.4x
Book value/sh
¥16.09
Enterprise value
$-54,876,558,065,664
Profitability
ROE
8.6%
FCF yield
30.94%
ROIC
1.8%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
3.70
Dividend yield
2.46%
Beta
0.40

Price

+48.5% · 1Y

Ask anything about SMFG

Answered from Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc Unsponsored American Depositary Shares (Japan) fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 11.4x13.9xhigh 16.4x
ROEbetter than 17% of peers
low 9%9%high 19%
Div yieldbetter than 33% of peers
low 2.2%2.5%high 4.3%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
SMFG Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc Unsponsored American Depositary Shares (Japan)$23.80$1739% above13.9x8.6%6772
8316.T Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group¥3171.00¥208552% above14.5x8.6%6164
UBSG.SW UBS GroupCHF 38.39CHF 2647% above16.4x10.7%6470
UBS UBS Group AG Registered Ordinary Shares$46.87$3728% above15.8x10.7%6468
BBVA Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Common Stock$25.03$245% above11.4x18.9%8679
BBVA.MC Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria€22.19€1820% above11.4x18.9%8181
SAN.MC Banco Santander€11.48€116% above13.1x13.1%7271

Sector report card

Where SMFG ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Jul 16, 2026
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  • Business Wire•Apr 23, 2026
    SMBC Capital Markets Hires Shrikar Shah to Lead Interest Rates Structured Trading
1 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 29
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-29
View on SEC →
Sep 10
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-10
View on SEC →
August 2026
Aug 14
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-12
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR