4 models fit Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver76
Valued as a bank: Residual income, P/E comparison, Dividend discount, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionBanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Common Stock (BBVA)
Fair value (4 models)
$23.88
ACCE price target
$24.90
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $24.16 since 9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $27.20 since 14 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $24.88 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, Graham number, P/E comparison, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
4.2% above
-4.0% to fair value
ACCE score
79
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
3 covering
P/E
11.4x
forward 11.9x
1-year return
+26.6%
Dividend yield
4.31%
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria runs retail, corporate and investment banking across Spain, Mexico, Turkey and South America, with its own digital banking app and a large consumer lending book in its home market. Its structural edge is scale in Spanish and Mexican retail deposits, which gives it cheap funding and a cost base that lets it earn an 18.9% return on equity. Revenue grew 20.2% on the latest reported period, and the operating margin of 56.4% points to a bank that is collecting well on the rate environment and keeping costs under control. At 11.8 times trailing earnings and 11.9 times forward, the stock is priced close to where the earnings growth is coming from, so the question for a PM is whether that growth is durable once rates and Turkish and Latin American exposures normalise. Worth a deeper look on the earnings quality and the EM mix, not on the headline multiple alone.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Sequential revenue decline
Revenue fell 1.4% quarter-over-quarter despite 20.2% YoY growth, signalling potential deceleration or seasonal weakness that warrants monitoring.
moderate
High leverage for a bank
Debt/Equity of 1.43 is elevated; combined with modest forward P/E of 11.9, leaves limited cushion if credit conditions tighten or earnings surprise downward.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Net margin of 32.6% and ROE of 18.9% show BBVA converts revenue into shareholder returns efficiently.
Free cash flow yield of 10.3% and dividend yield of 4.1% offer substantial cash returns to shareholders.
Year-over-year revenue growth of 20.2% and free cash flow of EUR 13.2B demonstrate strong near-term momentum.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value is 8.4% below current share price, with all 4 valuation models agreeing on overvaluation.
ROIC of 6.2% lags cost of capital, suggesting capital is not deployed productively despite high margins.
Share count dilution of 3.5% last year and 5-year revenue growth of only 4.2% signal slowing organic expansion.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where BBVA's valuation models land
Price
$24.88
Model fair value
$23.88
Model range
$15.77 to $31.57
Fair value $23.88
Price $24.88
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Graham number
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores