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SMCI
ACCE-researched

Super Micro Computer Inc. Common Stock (SMCI) fair value

Technology · Computer Hardware · NASDAQ · United States
$32.94-2.31%
Market cap $21.3BNext earnings 2026-11-03Updated Oct 20, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 27% below our fair value
Price
$32.94
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$45.16
Model range
$19.46 to $66.57
Fair value $45.16
Price $32.94
2 models fit Super Micro Computer Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze56
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionSuper Micro Computer Inc. Common Stock (SMCI)
Fair value (2 models)
$45.16
ACCE price target
$48.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST; previously $45.72 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST.
Price used: $32.94 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
27.1% below
+37.1% to fair value
ACCE score
73
out of 100
Analysts
22% buy
18 covering
P/E
10.1x
forward 5.9x
1-year return
-31.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Super Micro Computer Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Super Micro Computer builds rack-scale servers and storage systems, with a large share of its recent revenue coming from GPU-dense AI training and inference clusters sold to hyperscalers, neoclouds and enterprises. Revenue growth of 93.2% and a 21.5% return on equity show a business that has been converting demand for AI infrastructure into sales at a pace few hardware peers match. The gross margin of 10.8% is the number to weigh: it is thin for a company whose products carry so much compute, so the investment case rests on whether scale and product mix can hold operating margin at 13.4% as volume grows. At a trailing P/E of 10.8 and a forward P/E of 10.2, the market is pricing in a substantial slowdown or a margin squeeze, which makes this worth a deeper look on the question of whether that discount is warranted. The name carries index-membership and governance history that a PM should review before sizing anything.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Negative free cash flow
    FCF is -$8.2B despite $93% revenue growth and strong profitability. Working capital or capex intensity requires scrutiny.
  • high
    Insider selling concentration
    Last 10 disclosures show $15.44M in sales, zero buys. Contrasts with 12.7% insider ownership but signals confidence erosion.
  • moderate
    Quality score lag
    Q score 58/100 trails overall 74. Earnings growth of 435% YoY may reflect accounting or one-time items rather than sustainable operations.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 93.2% year over year with a 76.3% five-year average, showing sustained hypergrowth in AI infrastructure.
  • Stock trades at 7.9x forward P/E versus 29.4x sector median, implying 21.5% upside to consensus fair value.
  • ROE of 21.5% and latest EPS surprise of 189.3% demonstrate strong capital efficiency and earnings beat execution.
Why it could disappoint
  • Free cash flow of negative 8.2B and negative 30.5% FCF yield signal the company is burning cash to fund growth.
  • Share count diluted 11.0% last fiscal year while net margin sits at just 5.7%, pressuring per-share value creation.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where SMCI's valuation models land
Price
$32.94
Model fair value
$45.16
Model range
$19.46 to $66.57
Fair value $45.16
Price $32.94
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish22% buy · 18 covering analysts
● Strong buy 2● Buy 2● Hold 11● Sell 1● Strong sell 2
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+4.1%
1 month
-20.5%
3 months
+9.4%
6 months
+13.3%
YTD
+12.5%
1 year
-31.3%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $SMCI Score Jumps 10 Points to 74 - What's Driving It
    Super Micro Computer's ACCE composite score rose from 64 to 74. Here's what the data says about growth, value, momentum, and the risks still in the mix.
    2026-08-14
  • $SMCI Earnings: EPS Jumps 171% in Quarter Reported May 5
    Super Micro Computer posted EPS of $0.84 vs $0.31 a year ago and revenue growth of 122.7% YoY. ACCE score sits at 68. Full breakdown inside.
    2026-08-12

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$32.10
20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CESTFair value$45.16$45.72$32.10
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$45.72$50.85$35.78
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$50.85$58.35$41.86
8 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$58.35$57.18$43.46
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$57.18$58.19$41.02
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$58.19$59.13$43.26
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$59.13$58.36$43.26
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$48.00first publication$41.54
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$58.36$46.05$41.54

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth100Value74Quality58Momentum61Total73
Valuation
Trailing P/E
10.1x
Forward P/E
5.9x
PEG
0.03
P/B
2.66x
EV / Revenue
0.8x
Book value/sh
$15.61
Enterprise value
$32.7B
Profitability
ROE
21.5%
FCF yield
-29.83%
ROIC
7.9%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.60
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
2.01

Price

-31.8% · 1Y

Ask anything about SMCI

Answered from Super Micro Computer Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 10.1x10.1xhigh 123.3x
ROEbetter than 67% of peers
low 0%21%high 35%
Div yieldbetter than 17% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 3.8%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
SMCI Super Micro Computer Inc. Common Stock$32.94$4527% below10.1x21.5%5873
P Everpure Inc. Class A common stock$121.20--123.3x13.7%6467
7751.T Canon¥4898.00¥853743% below12.4x10.4%6369
LOGI Logitech International S.A. Ordinary Shares$112.52$8730% above20.2x35.3%8974
LOGN.SW Logitech InternationalCHF 90.06CHF 7126% above21.2x35.3%8974
HPQ HP Inc. Common Stock$33.76$354% below12.9x0.0%2962
0992.HK Lenovo Group LimitedHK$23.16HK$3329% below23.3x14.7%4475

Sector report card

Where SMCI ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 13, 2026
    Supermicro Expands Integrated Open Compute Project Portfolio to Accelerate Rack-Scale AI Data Center Deployments
  • PR Newswire•Oct 13, 2026
    Supermicro Expands Integrated Open Compute Project Portfolio to Accelerate Rack-Scale AI Data Center Deployments
  • PR Newswire•Oct 13, 2026
    STARTRADER Adds 48 US Stock CFDs with 24-Hour Weekday Trading
9 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 20
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-20
View on SEC →
Oct 15
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-14
View on SEC →
Oct 9
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-07
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR